The 2022 US Open is fast approaching its start, so everyone in the golf world is left with one major question: Who would you choose to win at The Country Club in Brooklyn, Massachusetts? An enormous field tops this year’s third major as the list includes most of the world’s best professionals. The US Open should be an epic journey from the first round Thursday onwards as the USGA returns to this spot for the first time since 1988.
This year’s US Open may have tremendous scope, but there is plenty of momentum behind a limited roster of names to win the National Championship. Rory McIlroy goes into the heater after defending his title at the RBC Canadian Open. Justin Thomas is looking to bounce back in the majors to claim his second PGA Championship title. Scottie Scheffler’s play has subsided, but he’s trying to join the rare air by doubling the Masters-US Open. Not to mention all that not to mention Jon Ram hanging out and Brooks Koepka’s usual dominance at the event as he has only defeated four golfers, combined, at the US Open since 2017.
And then, of course, there’s the story of Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson. What do you do with two big names and many major winners who don’t play good golf but still make headlines when they enter a major tournament? With no Tiger Woods, there will be more than usual interest in Mickelson in particular this week.
Add it all up, and it looks like we’re in for a wild US Open full of unexpected twists and turns but also plenty of familiar names on the leaderboard.
So what’s going to happen this week in Brooklyn? Let’s take a look at the full lineup of predictions and picks from our CBS sports experts as we try to determine who will win and what happens in the third major race of the season. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
2022 US Open experts and predictions
Kyle Porter, Senior Golf Writer
Winner – Justin Thomas (11-1): He plays the best golf of his career and has combined enduring confidence that no one in the world is better than him with wisdom that can only be attained with age and experience. JT is one of the three best iron players on the planet and his hot racquet has translated into near victories over the past couple of months. That won’t change this week as he advances even with Jordan Spieth with three majors in his career.
Slipper – Davis Riley (60-1): Quietly playing some of the best golf in the world, Riley swings one scent that could claim the US Open trophy. What he does best is (Crush iron) Exactly what you need to perform better In the major tournaments, especially in the US Opening. Five of Riley’s top 20s in a row (including the PGA Championship) I would expect six of them to achieve.
Top 10 Locks – Brooks Kopka: I’m counting on Brooks getting the US Open instead of Brooks in “the rest of the year”. He finished 1-1-2-T4 straight in this tournament and understands its rhythms perhaps better than anyone in history. Does he play well? Not really, but he missed three of the four cuts that were headed to the US Open last year and then nearly won it.
A star who definitely won’t win – Dustin Johnson: The reasons here are manifold. The first is that he doesn’t play particularly great golf. He also has not had a win since the 2020 Masters and has only one of the top 10 in stroke play events on the PGA Tour so far this year. Moreover, this week was such a circus that even a DJ has to feel it. He’s among those leading the rival LIV Golf league, and although his exterior looks muted, it gets so loud that I’m not sure he can ignore it.
Surprise prediction – Thomas and Rory McIlroy duel on Sunday: I don’t know if it comes as a surprise that two of the world’s top five golfers would beat each other for one of the four most coveted titles, but a dream scenario (a restored version of last weekend’s Canadian Open) rarely happens like this. It would be the perfect end to two weeks of golf craziness.
Phil Mickelson predicted – the link has already passed this week: We’ve already heard what we’re getting from Mickelson this week. He’s not playing good golf at the moment, and he definitely won’t make the cut at the US Open. He has yet to finish 25th in this tournament since he nearly won in 2013.
lowest round: 65 (-5)
Winning result: 278 (-2)
Sunday winning result: 70 (e)
Patrick MacDonald, golf writer
Winner – Patrick Cantlay (25-1): The record for the majors is poor, but he eliminated missed cuts in the PGA Championship and the Players Championship, and Cantlay has been incredible this year. In those 10 games, he’s had a win, two playoff losses, three top five spots, and another 10 biggest. I love this year’s PGA Tour Player of the Year when we put him on a golf course where his starting prowess will determine the winner. He has the complete expulsion, and it’s time to get the monkey off his back.
Slipper – Corey Conners (45-1): He was a semi-finalist at the 2013 US Amateur, which is great, but the current status of the Canadian game is tailored to the US Open. Accurate and deadly with his irons, he’s seen a slight increase in his short game numbers in the past three months. If he can turn enough of those crucial balls, he should be there on Sunday.
Top 10 Lock – Shane Lowry: Lowry’s first taste of major competition was the 2016 US Open in Oakmont. Since then, I thought his game would be perfect for the toughest tests in golf. He’s in the midst of some of his life’s best, and the consistency with which he hits the fairways and greens in regulation will allow him to be a factor at The Country Club.
A star who won’t win – Cameron Smith: Accuracy didn’t matter much in the recent US Opens, but this year it will be different. If this theory had its substance, the Australian would struggle as he regularly misses hits from the tee due to his astray with a driver in hand. Smith has competed in his first two majors of the year so this comes with a high level of risk, but I can see the world number 6 playing in defense from the start.
Expect Surprise – Rory McIlroy misses: McIlroy has lost the chops about one in five times, so there’s some value in a prop if you choose to indulge. The four-time Main Champion was a runner-up to the Masters Tournament, the first round leader in the PGA Championship, and all indications point to a fifth-place finish at The Country Club. It’s been a stressful week in Canada, and while his play is beginning to mirror that of 2014, the occasional mental breakdown and inaccuracy in the tee has gotten him into trouble.
Expect Phil Mickelson – the cut went unanswered despite positive fan response: With a couple of hot pieces of the road, we’re now going for something a little more subtle. The visualization around Phil isn’t that great at the moment, but I expect Boston fans will welcome him with open arms—outside of cross sections. Though, let’s remember that this 52-year-old has only played three competitive rounds in the past four months and shown a major rust in London.
lowest round: 66 (-4)
Winning result: 278 (-2)
Sunday winning result: 70 (e)
Who will win the US Open, and which long shots will stun the golf world? Visit SportsLine now to see our predicted leaderboard and best betsIt’s all from a model named eight major golfers and has gone up more than $9,500 since the reboot.
Kyle Boone, writer
Winner – Cameron Smith (18-1): Brookline will specifically claim what Smith can bring: a killer short game with its lightning-fast green pitch and high-precision tees for the many blind strokes golfers will be making this week. Smith is third on the PGA Tour this season in close hits earned and 11th in hits earned with a racket. If he plays his game he’ll be in the mix, and we’ve already seen him this season hang out with the big dogs with wins at The Players Championship and Sentry Open as well as the top five in the Masters and RSM Classic.
Slipper – Mito Pereira (55-1): With eight of the top 25 games finished in 21 events this season, 27-year-old Pereira is quietly putting together a distinguished year in his rookie campaign. He finished three times in the top ten, including twice in his last three matches. One of those ended up heartbroken, holding the lead walking to hole number 72 in the PGA Championship before relinquishing the lead thanks to a failed drive. However, Pereira is a name that could – but shouldn’t – be overlooked this week given his play up to this point. At the age of 55-1, he qualified as one of the most proficient underdog contenders at this year’s US Open.
Top 10 Lock – Rory McIlroy: This week looks set to be Rory’s coronation. On top of winning the Canadian Open this past weekend, he has taken the top 10 in three of his last four events: the Masters, Wells Fargo and the PGA Championship. At this point, it’s not just a coincidence: McIlroy has found his shape and is stranding well in time. He’s the favorite for a reason this week, and he should be 10th on the ground.
A star who definitely won’t win – Dustin Johnson: If you haven’t been on the news lately, DJ these days might be a little, well, distracted. Became the first major domino to join the LIV Golf Tour for a You mentioned $125 millionand subsequently withdrew his membership on the PGA Tour. There is a lot going on in his world. On the track, there is reason to believe that the former world number one will not win. He finished six boss hits in the first LIV event, which featured a poor field. And on the PGA Tour season, he had lost more cuts than the year’s top ten.
Surprise prediction – Sam Burns finished in the top five: Burns 25-1 to win outright. Don’t hate these odds a bit, but the top five finish is a safer bet. Since winning the Valspar Championships in March, he’s had two places in the top five and another win (at Charles Schwab two weeks ago). He’s also coming into the weekend with T4 at the Canadian Open where he’s been able to hold on to the likes of Thomas, Shane Lowry and Scotty Scheffler.
Phil Mickelson Prediction – The Missing Piece: Lefty shot 10 times in three rounds last weekend, his first competitive act since a months-long hiatus that began in February. There is no reason to expect that he will do anything but miss the cut. Even before his time off, he lost the cuts in his last two rounds. He’s a long way from finding the same shape that helped him win the PGA Championship in an amazing fashion a year ago.
lowest round: 64 (-6)
Winning result: 267 (-13)
Sunday winning result: 68 (-2)
