30 days: Quebec has the essentials for severe weather

In short:

• More than normal rainfall during this period;

• instability and risk of thunderstorms;

• Forest Fire: Low Risk.

Counter issues

It looks like the elements are settling in for an eventful storm season in Quebec. In fact, at the time of writing these lines, the province has already accumulated ten stormy days since May 1, which is almost identical to the average for the entire month. Atmospheric conditions are conducive to precipitation and violent weather. Although the western part of the country is located in the middle of an anticyclonic ridge, the path of the jet stream forms a trough to the north of La Belle Province. In the first part of the fire, other storms should be monitored.

“Weather conditions will be variable over the next few weeks with a touch of summer,” explains meteorologist Réjean Ouimet. No good weather for a long time. A weather regime that prevents extreme heat in Quebec will allow structured disturbances to continue to emerge. »

Favorable environment

The presence of cold air aloft is the key element that could create favorable conditions for thunderstorm activity in the coming weeks. Variation in air masses fuels the risk of instability and Quebec has already had its fair share of storms since the beginning of the month. May kicks off the season with an average of a dozen stormy days. In June, it is almost 20. In such a dominant atmospheric environment, we should expect more.

“The time it takes for the season to settle, we have to deal with this kind of uncertain weather,” insists Réjean Ouimet. And as the weather warms, the risk of severe storms will increase. A dome of cold air aloft is a strong argument in favor of thunderstorms. »

Watch out for the fire!

According to the models, the environment will be unfavorable for wildfires, which is obviously good news. Absence of intense heat and prolonged drought is an important factor to consider. However, you should be aware of storms that can automatically ignite fires.

“This is a major cause of forest fires in Quebec,” continues Régène Ouimet. Remember that lightning was largely responsible for triggering the fire season in late May and early June 2023. However, this year’s storms will be fewer than in 2023.”