Despite a tough campaign, CAQ has slowed its descent and may even win new seats tomorrow. The PQ’s rise was confirmed, however, with three-way struggles blurring the electoral map in both Montreal and Quebec.
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Since François Legault began meeting with voters across Quebec, the CAQ has seen a 4% drop in voting intentions.
In contrast, the PQ received 6% of objectives after the start of the election campaign.
The other three parties stuck to the status quo: in the end, their scores did not budge despite efforts to woo voters.
The CAQ leader, however, appears to have succeeded in consolidating his support this week, with a slight increase of 1%, according to a Léger poll ahead of tomorrow’s election.
The same can’t be said for QS, who are losing two points in a matter of days.
Although the score is similar to that of 2018 (the party won 37.4%), the CAQ could win a larger number of seats this year due to the vote split.
“The most ironic thing is that a false campaign will produce better results than the last one,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
“They wouldn’t have been the same,” he says of the two men’s previous fights.
Controversial statements
The Léger polaroid also shows that the controversial reports on immigration this week have not harmed the CAQ troops.
“It didn’t hurt, but it fueled the Quebec Liberal Party,” which won a point, Mr. Leger underlined.
Additionally, 25% of CAQ voters said Mr. Legault and Jean Boulet have already voted early.
With five parties in the lead this year, three-cornered struggles are emerging making the results uncertain in many constituencies.
“In every region, two or three districts are tight,” observes Jean-Marc Léger. Fourteen seats in the Montreal region are hotly contested, with five each in Quebec and Saudier-Appalachia, he estimates.
“Typically, we know who’s going to win these districts before election night starts,” he said, explaining the uncertainty that hangs over the moment.
The PQ’s surge tomorrow evening in a large part of Quebec City adds to the suspense. The PQ is reaping 19% of voting intentions there, neck and neck with the QS and PCQ, losing 4% of support there.
This is mainly thanks to the good performance of PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who led an excellent campaign, according to 31% of respondents.
Great campaign
Paul Saint-Pierre Plamonton comes first.
Which leaders have campaigned best so far?
Dated 1R October 2022
QP
Paul Saint Pierre
Plamonton
QS
Gabriel
Nato Dubois
CAQ
Francis
Legault
PCQ
Eric
Duhaim
QLP
Dominica
English
DK / Denial: 20%
Check it out tomorrow night
Tomorrow evening, we will also see the fate of chefs Dominique Anglade, Paul St-Pierre Plamonton and Eric Duheim, who are not guaranteed victory in their home districts.
“This is the element we will see throughout the evening. It will be tight in the three districts,” explained Jean-Marc Léger.
► Anyone using data from this survey must acknowledge that it is a ledger.Newspaper-DVA-Cube.
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