A new survey from Argus on Friday showed that OPEC+ production fell to 38.29 million bpd last month – 1.81 million bpd below its reduced quota.
The 19 OPEC+ members subject to the quota produced 310,000 bpd less in November compared to the previous month. But that’s still 1.81 million bpd short of its November quota. The November quota was a reduction of 2 million barrels per day from October levels, although it was understood at the time that the group might not be able to reach even that low target.
Non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ group fared better than conventional members of OPEC, raising combined production by 460,000 barrels per day – the highest level in eight months, according to Argus. Most of those increases came from Kazakhstan, which saw an output increase of 330,000 bpd, and Russia’s production which saw an increase of 190,000 bpd after the Sakhalin 1 restart.
OPEC’s crude production fell by 770,000 barrels per day for the month of November, the lowest level in six months. And Saudi Arabia led the decline in production, as its production decreased by 440,000 barrels per day.
The biggest laggard among the broader OPEC+ group now, according to Argus, is Russia, producing 670,000 bpd below target. Nigeria produces 530 thousand barrels per day below the target level, Angola produces 350 thousand barrels per day under the target, and Malaysia produces 170 thousand barrels per day under the target.
Group members that have met or exceeded their production target are Oman, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Gabon.
In all, non-OPEC countries produce less than 92 thousand barrels per day, while OPEC members produce part of the quotas under 90 thousand barrels per day.
Crude oil prices have fallen significantly this week, leading some to speculate that the OPEC+ group may cut oil production to support crude prices. Brent crude was set to end the week more than $10 this time last week – well below what most analysts believe was OPEC’s motivation to defend prices.
By Julian Geiger
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