The fantasy football playoffs are in full swing, and there’s no better Christmas present than another win. Let’s get into our Week 16 fantasy football rankings, sleep in, enjoy the best (and worst) things about Christmas — and try to spread the cheer.
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NB: everyone Of the statistics are Since week 10 – Unless mentioned. This is because it’s good to look at recent performance compared to defenses over the course of the year, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things.
Abbreviations you should know
- RBTouch% — RB Touch Percentage — The percentage of total RB touches made by a player
- TmTGT% — Team Goal Percentage — The percentage of the team’s total goals that go to this player
- TGT% — The percentage of time a player is targeted when playing tracks
- YPRR — yards per route run — is a fairly valuable indicator
- APA — Adjust the points allowed (link to tables above)
Saints at Rams, TNF
- If Chris Olave can’t go, Rashid Shahid and AT Perry are WR4’s with boom/bust potential.
- The Rams and Dolphins are tied for the highest 3% and Out% at 46.6.
- Since Week 8, Puka Nacua’s TmTGT% is 23.7 (WR18) with 10.4 FPPG (WR30) after 32.5 (WR4) and 15.3 (WR10) through Week 8.
Bengals at Steelers, Saturday, 4:30 p.m
- With no Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins is a must-have starter, but given Jake Browning’s style, Tyler Boyd will be the Vol WR4 and Trenton Irwin is the Vol boom/bust WR4.
- The Bengals are one of the three teams with the highest playoff percentage in five of the six games played – the Steelers’ percentage is 50% (3 to 6).
- The Bengals have allowed a rushing touchdown to their RB in all but three games, and that would be just two if the Zack Moss run isn’t called back in Week 14.
Bills at Chargers, Saturday, 8:15 p.m
- Keenan Allen wouldn’t lock Joshua Palmer into the WR2 spot and makes Quentin Johnston an interesting WR3/4.
- The Bills are one of three teams with only one game win (the other two being CHI and CAR).
- Gabe Davis has six games with 1.6 points or fewer (four zeros) — only four of the top 40 receivers have that two Games like this, and the Top 40 WR doesn’t have two zeros.
Colts at Falcons, 1 p.m
- If Jonathan Taylor is out and Zach Moss plays, he is a RB1/2 but more dangerous than usual due to injury. If Moss is also out, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson would be upside for RB3 options with the risk — either one could lead, or it could be 50/50, etc.
- The Falcons have a league-low 1.2% of pass attempts for touchdowns (second lowest are the Dolphins at 1.7%).
- The Falcons have a positive scoring margin with Taylor Heinicke (replaced Desmond Ridder once and hit/pulled in Game 3) to -56 without.
Seahawks at Titans, 1 p.m
- If Will Levis is out and the Giants go with Ryan Tannehill, there will be no real change in the players’ skills. If Malik Willis is under center, lower the level of the passing game.
- Kenneth Walker’s RBTouch% of 84.6% was his highest since Week 7 and second highest of the season.
- While Derrick Henry only had a 66.7% RBTouch% in Week 15, he had six games with lower marks, but in every game with at least 69.0%, he scored more than 12.9 points – D’Andre Swift had his highest RBTouch% against Seahawks since 18.2. -Points match in Week 11.
Lions at Vikings, 1 p.m
- The Lions are strong against the run but have the second easiest QB and third easiest WR APAs.
- If Alexander Mattison is out again, Ty Chandler is a top 20 starter.
- Jordan Addison is averaging 10.8 FPPG with Justin Jefferson, 14.9 YD/Rec, 1.80 YPRR, 16.1 TD/TGT%, compared to 6.6, 12.3, 1.50 and 6.7% without him.
Commanders in planes, 1 p.m
- If Brian Robinson doesn’t return, Antonio Gibson is still the RB2/3, and Chris Rodriguez is the RB4.
- The Jets have the toughest QB and WR APAs with the second toughest WR being the Panthers (3.8 easiest PPG).
- The Leaders allow a league-high 2.91 points per drive (second PHI, 2.70), a league-high 6.7 yards/play, and force the lowest percentage of 3-and-outs (24.1).
Packers at Panthers, 1 p.m
- Without Christian Watson And Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks would be a great play at WR3/4. If only one of the two comes out, Wicks is a Hail Mary WR5.
- Quarterbacks facing off or not, it’s crazy to see only nine rushing yards allowed to QBs by the Panthers, with most having negative rushing yards – the second-fewest QB rushing yards allowed is the Patriots at 116.
- The Packers are allowing a league-high 5.4 YD/Rush with ARI and DEN tied at 5.1 behind them.
Browns at Texas, 1 p.m
- Amari Cooper has 25.7 TGT% and 11.0 FPPG with Joe Flacco versus 21.7 and 8.0 FPPG with everyone else – David Njoku has 16.1 FPPG with Joe Flacco – that’s seventh for a WR/TE combined.
- Devin Singletary scored 90.9% on RBTouch last week. He has at least 10.2 points per game on 55%+ shooting with all but one point (five of six).
- The Browns run the most Cover-1 (38.7%), Nico Collins is second in YPRR against Cover-1 (3.54 – Tyreek Hill 4.91) and Noah Brown is 10th at 2.76.
Jaguars at Buccaneers, 4 p.m
- Evan Engram is one of those six players ahead of Njoku in FPPG in the last three weeks (16.8).
- Mike Evans has just four games without a touchdown and just one game since Week 10 — his only game without more than 12.8 points.
- Since Week 9, only Christian McCaffrey (23.4) and Kyren Williams (22.2) have averaged more FPPG than Rashad White (18.4).
Cardinals at Bears, 4 p.m
- Whether Marquise Brown plays or not, it’s impossible to trust the Cardinals’ receivers outside of Trey McBride…so yeah…no wide receiver.
- The Cardinals allow a league-high 8.2% per pass attempt (leaders are second at 8.0%).
- The Bears defense continues to be a concern with their highest run percentage since Week 5 (52.6) and only one receiver topping 77 receiving yards since Week 2; Mike Evans (171) is the only receiver to pass this season along with Amari Cooper (109 last week).
Cowboys at Dolphins, 4 p.m
- The Dolphins and Cowboys rank first and second in QB pressure percentage (47.5 and 45.5, respectively).
- The Dolphins also allow the fewest points per drive (1.09) with the Patriots in second (1.18), and the fewest YD/Play (4.1) with the Bills in second (4.4).
- Tony Pollard has only one game with more than one goal-line attempt since Week 2 (three in Week 10) with six games without tries.
Patriots at Broncos, SNF
- The Patriots are the stingiest in YD/Rush at 2.4 with the Dolphins the second stingiest at 3.3.
- Since Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury, only Kyren Williams has a higher RBTouch% (89.4) than Ezekiel Elliott (82.5), who also leads all running backs in TmTGT% (23.5).
- The Broncos didn’t allow the wideout to score in double figures from Weeks 5-12, then allowed 25.1 to Week 13’s Nico Collins and 17.2 to Amon-Ra St. Louis. Brown last week – Every 13+ grade this year includes the receiver getting 9+ targets.
Raiders at Chiefs, Monday, 1 p.m
- If Josh Jacobs doesn’t return, Zamir White will return to playing as a fringe RB2 but with greater risk if they fall behind, as Brandon Bolden and Amir Abdullah will eat away at passes.
- Before missing Weeks 14-15, Isiah Pacheco was the RB14 in FPPG (13.1) with 4.4 YPC and 72.3 RBTouch% (6th).
- Over the past four weeks, Rashee Rice is the WR5 with 16.4 FPPG and has a 27.9 TmTGT%, while Travis Kelce is the TE7 at 9.7 FPPG (21.3 TmTGT%).
Giants at Eagles, Monday, 4:30 p.m
- The Giants are averaging 55.0 plays in the league, and they score touchdowns on just 15.5% of their drives (7th worst).
- Since Week 8, only the Colts and Rams have a lower RB Stuff% than the Eagles (39.6).
- The Giants haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 5, and the only two who came close (98 each) and topped 79 yards were Josh Jacobs and Stevenson on 26 and 21 carries, respectively.
Ravens at 49ers, Monday, 8:15 p.m
- The 49ers lead in TD/Drive% at 40.6 (DAL is second at 39.7), and the Ravens are eighth toughest with 16.4% allowed.
- Since Mark Andrews’ injury, Isaiah will likely be the TE5 with 12.8 FPPG, ahead of TJ Hockenson (10.2), Travis Kelce (9.7) and more.
- Zay Flowers has a 1.55 YPRR against zone compared to 1.26 against man, while Odell Beckham has 1.86 and 2.66 – the 49ers rank sixth in defense.
Week 16 of fantasy football dreams
here they are The sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo Worth the risk in most tournaments, and dangerous If you need a Hail Mary.) They won’t replicate my ratings 100%. It’s about chasing the upside and often carries more risk – simply put, it’s bullish trades that you would consider on a hard floor option.
Woo woo worth it
- QB: Jared Goff, DET
- RB: Chuba Hubbard, Central African Republic; Kenneth Walker, Sea
- WR: Noah Brown, HOU; Joshua Palmer, LAC
- TE: Possible Isaiah, pal
Let’s get dangerous
- QB: Nick Mullins, Maine
- RB: Devin Singletary, HO; Justice Hill, Pal
- WR: Tyler Boyd, CIN; Curtis Samuel, WSH
- TE: Kyle Pitts, ATL
Have fun with the world rankings!
Link: History of Fun Christmas Classes
It’s a Christmas bonus! I think I’ve done everything possible for Christmas now…the best TV episodes, the best cookies, the best songs, the best movies, and last year, the worst songs. I’m not sure there’s anything left. Maybe you have an idea? However, if you want to see all the lists, use #CheckTheLink to avoid word overload in this column. Merry Christmas and happy holidays everyone!
Week 16: Fantasy football predictions
🚨 attention 🚨 These can differ from my classifications and rankings Ranks are the order in which I will start players Out of added context, such as “I need the highest price, even if it’s risky.” Also, based on 4 TDs for QB, 6 RTS, 1/2 PPR
The download link was added on Thursday
Week 16 fantasy football rankings
🚨 attention 🚨
- There is no perfect tool out there, unfortunately, still. I know a lot of people are watching this on your phone, but 1) Use the taxonomy tool on a PC/laptop/etc. If possible or 2) open it in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, so that the scrolling works properly.
- ECR = “Expert” Consensus Rating (which is not updated by everyone constantly, so take it with a grain of salt).
- It’s updated regularly, so check to see if your lineups are locked.
(Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
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