Most of my conversations around the NFL last week centered on the firing of the coach and general manager, which is expected to take place early Monday. We'll get to that in a minute.
Over the past 10 years, when I've been a live television reporter with this information, I've never had the opportunity to express to those watching that seeking information about whether someone is about to be fired can be insensitive and distressing for many reasons, namely . For those families.
Most coaches will tell you that this is a performance-based business that they willingly signed up for. They know that if you don't win in this league, you won't continue. However, it still stinks to lose a job.
Now it's my job to figure out what I hear and share it with you, so let's get there.
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The conversations around the league have really changed over the past month. Around Thanksgiving, it looked like there might be a record number of firings, but better performance saved some jobs and, in one case, organizational fear of making mistakes again saved the coach and his staff.
I still expect there to be multiple ejections on Monday and perhaps one or two more during the playoffs.
It's all about New England…
Robert Kraft has a big decision to make about Bill Belichick's future. The 71-year-old Belichick wants to keep coaching, he can still coach, and the players in New England are still playing hard. After a season filled with a lot of talk about the end of the Belichick era, along with reports that the Krafts are open to a change, here's what I know from conversations with multiple league sources:
• There is a meeting scheduled for next week between owner Robert Kraft, Jonathan Kraft and Belichick.
• There are some people working in the team who anticipate changes and are starting to feel jobs elsewhere.
• There are other organizations, such as the Leaders and Raiders, hoping for a chance to meet with Belichick. There are more teams in the shadows, but that will depend on the results of Week 18 games and the results of the playoffs.
• There has been talk for months that if the Patriots parted ways with Belichick, Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio, a former longtime member of New England's Personnel Intelligence Fund, would want a chance to return to the Patriots as their general manager. But based on my conversations with league sources, Houston is where the 48-year-old wants to be.
Why would Caserio want to leave the Texans after leading the way in drafting a star-studded rookie class led by quarterback C.J. Stroud? He also hired DeMeco Ryans in 2023, and the relationship is thriving. Caserio is on his way to building something special, and wants to stick around to chase his seventh Super Bowl ring, this time with the Texans.
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Ron Rivera wore many hats in Washington during his four years as head coach. At various times he seemed to play the role of owner, general manager, public relations person and head coach. After serving in all those roles, he may not get a role on Monday. League sources have told me that Rivera and his staff are well aware that his time in Washington is coming to an end.
Although this season started with promise, new owner Josh Harris began discussions looking for a new coach and general manager a few weeks ago, according to a league source. The leaders are keeping an eye on what's happening in New England while hoping to hire a general manager first before hiring their next coach.
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The Chargers cast a wide net, and that means considering every option. I've been told by a league source that they would prefer to hire someone with head coaching experience and hope to avoid hiring a first-time head coach. Does this mean potential head coaches like Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson or Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith are out of the running? No, not if the monarchy can be persuaded.
University of Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, who recently hired NFL agent Don Yee (who represents both Tom Brady and Sean Payton), is Los Angeles' top candidate. We'll see how aggressive the Spanos get and whether they're the first team to call Harbaugh on the phone after Monday's College Football Playoff championship game.
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Even if owner Mark Davis wanted to hire Antonio Pierce, he couldn't officially hire him as head coach right after the Raiders' final game on Sunday. Ownership is required to interview at least two minority outside candidates to comply with the NFL's Rooney Rule. Player endorsement of Pierce has been strong over the past few weeks, and it's clear he has the trust of the locker room. Does this help? sometimes. Do you get the job? not always.
Davis has always made it clear that a team in Las Vegas needs a star coach. Harbaugh is pretty much at the top of his list, as is Belichick if he leaves New England. If you recall, Davis wanted to hire Harbaugh in 2015 before the coach took the Michigan job.
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Falcons owner Arthur Blank and coach Arthur Smith have always had a healthy communication relationship. They've spent three years together, and on Sunday they have a chance to get into the playoffs with a win over the New Orleans Saints and some help from the Carolina Panthers. Smith has a six-year contract with the Falcons and helped rebuild the roster, but they are still missing the most important piece — their quarterback.
This season, Blank has been unhappy with losing and inconsistent play at the QB position. He's been publicly uncommitted to his head coach's future, and after an offseason that produced a reloaded defense and several highly-drafted offensive players, he has reasons to be frustrated.
Internally, there's a feeling the staff will get another chance to do so, but at 81, Blank isn't getting any younger. He wants to win now. He's had conversations with people from around the league that lead me to believe he's leaning toward making the move. Look for Blank to make a big swing for Belichick as well if he moves on from Smith. This isn't rebuilding in Atlanta anymore.
Owner David Tepper will try again with Ben Johnson, according to a league source. The play-caller is open to the job and will also meet with other teams that are expected to show interest, the source said. There is a feeling around the league that general manager Scott Fitterer may help in some transition but may not be secure in his job. Carolina can start over.
The Saints have been operating the past few weeks as if Dennis Allen will stay on as head coach. Allen appears to be safe, but in conversations with league sources, I expect some personnel changes to be made.
Team CEO/President Kevin Warren has been watching, taking notes and evaluating his coach and team throughout the season. Although ownership will have the final say on the future of Matt Eberflus and the staff, Warren will have a strong hand in the decision. Warren recently shared that he appreciates the team's energy around Halas Hall but did not offer any endorsement of its head coach.
So what can we expect from Warren? He hasn't made any knee-jerk decisions this season, giving the staff the entire regular season to show they're the right group. It is described as systematic. Unemotional. a plan. All of his decisions are made with a long-term approach, so while Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers looks huge for the staff and quarterback Justin Fields, I don't think one game will move things in either direction.
Before I leave you…
Dallas Cowboys players were told this week they can't make the same mistake the Patriots made in 2019 in the regular-season finale against a divisional opponent. Here is the situation:
The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East and retain the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win Sunday over 14-point underdog leaders Washington. Although Dallas fans shouldn't be worried about a Sam Howell-led Washington team, they can't overlook the leaders. This is where the Patriots come in.
In 2019, the Patriots were 14-point favorites over the Dolphins at home, looking to lock up the AFC East against a Miami team that didn't have much to play for. But New England lost, then hosted a Wild Card game against the Tennessee Titans the following week. That game was lost as well, and Tom Brady never played for the Patriots again. According to a league source, the message to the Cowboys this week was: “We can't squander the No. 2 seed.”
If that happens? I would add Mike McCarthy to the list of coaches having problems.
While I'm breaking Larry David's very strict rule that you can't say Happy New Year after January 3, Happy New Year! Wishing you a wonderful 2024 filled with good health, love and passion for life.
(Photo by Ron Rivera and Bill Belichick: Matthew J. Lee/Boston Globe via Getty Images)
