Two factors could cause snow to return to Quebec

Late snow

Snow always surprises us in spring. In late March and even early April, a wide area is possible everywhere in Quebec. In Montreal, we're recording an average of 24 extra centimeters between now and the end of April, with a little more at the other end of Highway 20. It is in the east of the province that moisture-rich systems throw their fate. In fact, it's not uncommon for coastal storms to dump significant amounts of snow in the spring. This year, southern Quebec is less likely to receive solid rain.

Auspicious time

At this time of year, milder weather is gradually setting in and the seasonality is above freezing for the southern parts of Quebec. Therefore, snow requires two things: a structure and the passage of cold air. At the end of March, the atmospheric conditions will be favorable for snowfall in many areas. In fact, a trough will allow cold air to descend to the south. However, if this cold is only further west, Quebec will be eligible for moderate temperatures and therefore less favorable for solid precipitation.

Rain or snow

The path the systems take will be decisive for the nature of the precipitation. In fact, a more southerly path could put Quebec on the cold side of the disturbance, a positive element for snow. However, cold positioning further west may influence the path of disturbances.

Coastal systems

Conversely, a northerly track would increase the probability of moderate winds, which would favor a rain scenario, at least for the southern part of the province. In the event of a coastal storm, the eastern part of the province will become the prime target for significant accumulations, but the center could also be affected. Again, southern Quebec will be spared, but smaller systems from the west could produce a few centimeters.

In collaboration with Kevin Cloutier, meteorologist.

See also: Snowmobilers buried in avalanches