The first signs point to an interesting summer in Quebec

Mild winters = hot summers

The winter of 2023-2024 was the mildest since weather records began. Can you make a connection between winter and summer? In other words, can you follow the summer trend? One thing is certain, many factors affect the appearance of the most beautiful time of the year: Bermuda high pressure, sea temperature, etc. Our expert Réjean Ouimet studied similar phenomena to determine if the two seasons are related.

“In the collective imagination, there's the idea that the seasons are at odds,” explains meteorologist Régène Ouimet. For example, if living in winter isn't so difficult, summer can be disastrous. Since 1942, of Montreal's 30 least cold winters, on 19 occasions, the following summers were warmer than normal. In only 6 cases was the deviation from normal comparable between winter and summer. »

Mild winters

If many factors change the appearance of summer, the same goes for winter. So, while the elements favor softness, the trend is maintained in most cases. Here, extreme conditions are reserved for Montreal: mild winters. The result is definitive. There is one exception, however: 2017. Amazingly, that year marked the end of the El Niño cycle, until 2024.

“If you take 10 mild winters in Montreal since 1942, there have been nine warm summers,” explains Régène Ouimet. The combination of conditions that favors warm air over Quebec is a combination of conditions that seem to leave long-lasting traces, and observations are even better during warmer winters.

Regional reality

Note that even in extreme cases, depending on the region, conditions can vary significantly. In fact, given the mild winters in the south, center, east and northwest of Quebec, the following summer was not particularly warm. However, as Régène Ouimet points out, although temperatures were normal in most cases, general conditions were very good.

“Following a very mild winter, Montreal, Quebec or Gaspé had summers with normal temperatures,” assesses Réjean Ouimet. In Val D'Or, the summer of 2016 was warmer than normal. But it was not a record. That same summer in Quebec, it was pretty normal. However, the general conditions (warmth and good weather) were more pleasant during the summers in question than many normal summers. »

In collaboration with Nicolas Lessard and Réjean Ouimet, meteorologists.

See also: Lac-Mégantic total eclipse