The biggest challenge facing the housing market isn’t going away anytime soon.
Bank of America economists warned that the housing market will remain “stuck in the mud, and unlikely to become unstable” until 2026, as the supply of homes for sale remains near record lows.
The so-called “lock-in” effect of homeowners who took out very cheap mortgages when interest rates were low during the pandemic has caused homeowners to stay put.
The investment bank believes the effects of this could last 6-8 years, keeping housing activity low and therefore the residential investment that feeds into the GDP calculation.
High interest rates have greatly impacted home ownership.
Mortgage rates remain hovering around 7% despite the recent decline in borrowing costs, keeping supply low and pushing up prices of homes on the market.
House prices hit a new record high in April, although annual growth slowed from the previous month, according to a report from the European Central Bank. Latest data available From Case Schiller. Bank of America expects home prices to grow by about 4.5% this year, 5.0% next year, and 0.5% in 2026.
“House prices have already exceeded their long-term fundamental value based on disposable income,” Michael Jaben, an economist at Bank of America, wrote in a note to clients on Friday.
“Second, our outlook for the economy calls for continued normalization as the effects of the pandemic move into the rearview mirror. The structural shift in housing demand that has pushed up house prices should fade over time. However, we believe it is unlikely that house prices will fall a lot.”
