French elections: The far right leads in the first round, in a blow to Macron, according to expectations

CNN
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The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, advanced in the first round of elections France Initial expectations showed that the parliamentary elections scheduled for Sunday will bring it closer to the gates of power than ever before.

After an unusually high turnout, the National Rally bloc leads with 34% of the vote, while the leftist New Popular Front coalition ranks second with 28.1%, and President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition falls to third place with 20.3%, according to opinion poll results. Preliminary estimates by Ipsos.

While the National Front appears to be on track to win the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, it may not be able to secure the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, suggesting that France may be heading towards a hung parliament and greater political uncertainty.

After the second round of voting next Sunday, the BN is forecast to win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat lower house — a stunning increase from its 88 seats in the outgoing parliament. The NLD was forecast to win between 125 and 165 seats, with the group falling between 70 and 100 seats.

The election, called by Macron after his party was defeated by the National Front in European Parliament elections earlier this month, could leave him to serve out the remaining three years of his presidential term in a strange partnership with a prime minister from an opposition party.

The National Front party in the northern town of Henin-Beaumont erupted in celebration as the results were announced, but Marine Le Pen was quick to stress that next Sunday’s elections will be decisive.

“Democracy has spoken, and the French people have put the National Rally and its allies first – practically wiping out the Macronite bloc,” she told a cheering crowd, adding: “Nothing has been won – and the second round will take place.” “decisive.”

In a speech at the party’s headquarters in Paris, Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old party leader who will become prime minister in the future, echoed Le Pen’s message.

“The vote that will take place next Sunday is one of the most decisive elections in the entire history of the Fifth Republic,” Bardella said.

In upbeat speeches ahead of the first round, Bardella said he would reject a minority government, as the National Rally would need the votes of allies to pass laws. If the National Rally fails to secure an absolute majority and Bardella stays true to his word, Macron may then have to look to a far-left prime minister, or elsewhere entirely, to form a technocratic government.

With an unprecedented number of seats going to a three-way run-off, a week of political bargaining will now follow, with center and left parties deciding whether or not to stand down in individual seats to block nationalists and anti-immigration groups. RN – long a pariah in French politics – was unable to win a majority.

When the National Rally – under its previous name, the National Front – had a strong performance in the first round of voting in the past, the previously left-wing and centrist parties united to prevent it from taking power, under a principle known as the “sanitary barrier”.

After Jean-Marie Le Pen — Marine’s father and leader of the National Front for decades — unexpectedly defeated Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential election, the Socialists threw their weight behind center-right candidate Jacques Chirac, turning him in. Landslide in the second round.

In an attempt to deprive the National Rally of its majority, the National Progressive Front – a leftist coalition formed earlier this month – has promised to withdraw all of its candidates who came in third in the first round.

“Our instructions are clear – not one more vote, not one more seat for the National Rally,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed – the NFP’s largest party – told supporters on Sunday.

“We have a long week ahead of us, and each person will make their own decision based on their conscience, and this decision will determine, in the long run, the future of our country and the fate of each one of us,” Mélenchon added.

Marine Tondillier, leader of the Green Party – a more moderate part of the National Labor Party – made a personal call for Macron to step down in certain seats to deprive the National Front of a majority.

“We’re counting on you: Drop out if you finish third in a three-way race, and if you don’t qualify for the runoff, invite your supporters to vote for a candidate who supports Republican values,” she said.

Macron’s allies also called on their supporters to prevent the far right from taking power, but they warned against giving their votes to the controversial man Mélenchon.

Macron’s protégé and outgoing prime minister, Gabriel Attal, urged voters to prevent the National Rally from winning a majority, but said Mélenchon’s France Insoumise party was “preventing a credible alternative” to the far-right government.

“Votes should not be cast for National Rally candidates, but also for France Unbowed candidates, with whom we disagree on fundamental principles,” said former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, another Macron ally.

But it is unclear whether tactical voting will be able to prevent the National Rally Party from winning a majority. In Sunday’s vote, the National Rally won support in places that were unimaginable until recently. In the 20th electoral district of the Nord department, an industrial area, Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel was defeated in the first round by a candidate from the National Rally Party who had no previous political experience. The Communists had occupied this seat since 1962.

Macron’s decision to call early elections – the first in France since 1997 – surprised the country and even his closest allies. Sunday’s vote was held three years earlier than necessary and just three weeks after Macron’s Ennahda party was defeated by the National Front in the European Parliament elections.

Macron has pledged to serve out the remainder of his final presidential term, which runs until 2027, but now faces the prospect of having to appoint a prime minister from an opposition party – in a rare arrangement known as “cohabitation.”

The French government does not face much difficulty in passing laws when the president and the majority in Parliament belong to the same party. When they don’t, things can grind to a halt. While the president sets the country’s foreign, European and defense policy, the parliamentary majority is responsible for passing domestic laws, such as pensions and taxes.

But these powers may overlap, which could push France into a constitutional crisis. For example, Bardella ruled out sending troops to help Ukraine resist a Russian invasion — an idea floated by Macron — and said he would not allow Kiev to use French military equipment to strike targets inside Russia. It is unclear who might prevail in such conflicts, as the line between domestic and foreign policy is blurred.

A far-right government could lead to a financial and constitutional crisis. The National Rally has pledged to spend lavishly – from rolling back Macron’s pension reforms to cutting taxes on fuel, gas and electricity – at a time when France’s budget may be subject to a brutal cut by Brussels.

With one of the highest fiscal deficits in the eurozone, France may need to embark on a period of austerity to avoid falling foul of the European Commission’s new fiscal rules. But if the Conservative Party’s spending plans are implemented, they will send France’s deficit soaring – a prospect that has alarmed bond markets and prompted warnings of a “Liz Truss-style fiscal crisis,” referring to Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister.

In a brief statement on Sunday evening, Macron said the high turnout showed “the desire of French voters to clarify the political situation,” and called on his supporters to gather in the second round.

He said: “In the face of the National Rally, it is time for a broad and clearly democratic Republican Rally for the second round.”