CNN
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The number of jobs available in the United States rose unexpectedly in May, indicating that Continued flexibility In the country’s labor market.
Job openings jumped higher to 8.14 million in May, from Revised down 7.91 million in AprilAccording to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday.
Economists had expected openings to fall to 7.91 million, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
Despite the rise in job advertisements, which can be Totally volatile, JOLTS Report for May Marked An important milestone for the US labor market: The jobless rate fell to 1.22 jobs per job seeker, which is in line with the figure recorded in February 2020, a month before the pandemic-induced lockdowns shocked the global economy.
This ratio has been moving steadily downward since hitting a record high of 2.0. In March 2022JOLTS data shows.
“The report was another sign that the labor market is holding up,” Robert Frick, corporate economist at Marine Federal Credit Union, said in a statement Tuesday. “So far, there are no signs that job growth will slow this year, so consumer spending will continue to strengthen and the expansion looks solid.”
Other seasonally adjusted measures of labor turnover showed continued stability in the U.S. jobs market, which has slowed gradually in recent months while remaining historically strong.
The estimated number of employees rose to 5.76 million from 5.62 million in April; the number of layoffs and terminations rose to 1.65 million in May, up from 1.54 million; while the number of voluntary quits rose to 3.46 million from 3.45 million.
While the employment and job opening rates (as a percentage of total employment) increased for May, the job turnover rate and layoff rate were unchanged.
Economists have been watching the quit rate — which has held steady at 2.2% for seven straight months — closely because it serves as a signal of workers’ willingness to test the labor market waters. When people change jobs, it can often be associated with bigger wage increases, which in turn can make it harder to tame inflation.
The pay increases received by people who change jobs have fallen significantly compared to the period of the “Great Resignation,” according to the Times of India. To the newly released analysis From Bank of America.
Economists there analyzed internal client data and found that average wage increases are about half the size they were during the peak of pandemic-era job changes.
In fact, average wage increases are just below 2019 levels, David Tinsley, chief economist at the Bank of America Institute, told CNN.
“People are still moving jobs a little faster than they were before the pandemic… but the pay increases they get when they make those moves are less significant,” he said. “That kind of suggests that the pendulum has swung a little bit in favor of businesses and away from workers.”
The labor market appears to be at a crossroads, Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Hiring Lab, wrote in a commentary published Tuesday.
“The phrase ‘little change’ was repeated no less than six times in the May JOLTS issue, and nearly every major index tracked showed limited significant movement, either up or down,” Bunker wrote. “This short-term stability is a good thing. But the question remains whether this quiet period can last or whether more uncertain times are on the horizon.”
“This current level of employment is consistent with a healthy, sustainable and balanced market, but any continued declines below these current levels will quickly become more worrisome,” he wrote.
It may take interest rate cut He added that this was to ensure that employers’ demand for workers did not decline too much.
Federal Reserve officials still widely believe the labor market remains on solid footing, allowing the central bank to comfortably keep interest rates at a 23-year high while they wait for more evidence that inflation is under control.
But some Fed officials have noted that the labor market has lost momentum recently and that it is largely unclear whether it will continue to hold steady or weaken further.
“If employment starts to collapse or if the economy starts to weaken, which I’ve seen some warning signs of, you have to balance that with the progress you’re making on the rates front,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday during a conference hosted by the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal.
“The unemployment rate is still very low, but it is rising,” he added.
In May, the US unemployment rate rose to 4%, a rate not seen since January 2022. However, job growth remained strong in May, with a net gain of 272,000 jobs.
Economists largely expect job gains to moderate in June. As of Tuesday, FactSet estimates were calling for a net gain of 189,000.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits (a proxy for layoffs) have risen in recent weeks, in line with pre-pandemic averages.
“These rates are still low, historically speaking, but they are high between the May and June payroll survey reference months, so we think we could see some slowdown in job growth during the month,” Marissa DiNatale, chief labor economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an interview.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its latest jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.
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