Assets linked to the possibility of US Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the November election. The November 4 election is witnessing renewed volatility after the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday.
Bitcoin (BTC) It has risen 7% to $62,500 since the weekend attack, boosting the odds of a pro-crypto candidate winning the election to 70% on Polymarket.
The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has crossed the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a broad measure of long-term trends and a trendline marking a downtrend from its early June highs, in a positive sign for momentum traders, CoinDesk data shows. Trump-themed Polifi tokens, which represent the intersection of politics and finance, also rose.
In recent months, Trump has reversed course and embraced cryptocurrencies to outflank his rival Joe Biden and win over the supposedly single-issue crypto community, which is seeking a more friendly regulatory environment for the industry. As such, bitcoin and the broader crypto market have become bets on a Trump victory. The former president is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.
“The biggest headline over the weekend was the attempted assassination of Trump. It’s absolutely insane. This has improved the odds of a Trump presidency. Trump being a crypto-friendly president should help spur crypto offerings,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amperdata, said in an email.
Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan (CNY) fell against the US dollar as a potential Trump win could mean higher trade tariffs. Earlier this year, Trump proposed revoking China’s “most-favored nation” status in US trade and imposing tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods. The Mexican peso (MXN) also fell as Trump’s relations with the Latin American country soured during his previous presidency.
Futures prices for 10-year Treasury notes fell, suggesting yields will rise as Trump’s return to the White House would mean more spending, tax cuts and a bigger budget deficit. Many investment banks are betting that a Trump win would exacerbate the current inverted yield curve in the coming months. Historically, a steeper slope has led to a broad risk aversion in financial markets.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 Index were trading 0.18% higher at the time of writing, pointing to a positive open on Monday even as Asian stocks fell on disappointing economic growth figures from China. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against major currencies, was up 0.10% at 104.19, according to TradingView.
