How much can LeBron James affect son Bronney’s stock in the NBA? And maybe more than you thought

LeBron James The father was the best NBA player in his class from the moment he was able to pick up the basketball. He was a prodigy identified as a future superstar years before he qualified to go pro and close to something as sure as young athletes ever. On the other hand, LeBron James Jr. is something a bit more traditional.

In the middle of his junior season in the Sierra Canyon in Los Angeles, 247 Mathematical Ranking James as the 34th best player in his high school class. His status as a prospect has plummeted since he reached high school level, with 247 ranking him 19th in class 2023 as recently as September 2020. Now? He’s not even the highest-ranking son of a former Cleveland Cavalier in that category, topping the 2023 crop of DJ Wagner, son of former LeBron teammate DaJuan Wagner. A four-star rating is not something most potential customers sneeze at. It’s a little low for a client literally called “LeBron James.”

If there wasn’t a prospect of this caliber named LeBron James, he would likely spend several years in college developing his skill set and preparing to transition from college star to pro player. This might not be a luxury for Bruni, though, as his more famous dad already connects the end of his career with the beginning of his son.

“My final year will be playing with my son,” James Sr told the Athletic Sabbath. “Wherever Bronny is, that’s where I’ll be. I’ll do whatever it takes to play with my son for one year. It’s not about the money at this point.”

James the Elder did not specify a definitive timeline for the end of his career. his current Lakers The contract expires in 2023. Barring a sudden change to the “one and do” rule in the NBA, his son won’t become eligible to enlist until 2024 at the earliest. By then, LeBron James Sr. will be approaching his fortieth birthday. He probably wouldn’t want to stay much longer. Even if he does, every extra year that awaits him is one in which he could suffer an injury that would prevent them from joining the team. Therefore, the odds are that James Jr. will enter the NBA draft in 2024 as a prospect who, by merit, is unlikely to be selected in the first round.

And this is where this becomes interesting. The cynical view of LeBron’s announcement is that he’s well-versed in arranging his son as a possibility and that he’s pinning his farewell tour carrot as a lure for some team to draft LeBron. If this is his plan, then it is a sound plan. From a purely strategic point of view, having a one-year LeBron quad is worth the investment of one draft. In fact, James will likely turn his son, a marginal prospect at the moment, into one of the top picks in the 2024 NBA Draft.

last June, Zack Cram in Ranger Measure the typical value of each slot in the NBA Draft lottery. What he found was that while nearly every slot produced great players, the average return on most shots was rather disappointing. During the junior’s four-year contract tenure, the 8th overall pick is expected to score 6.8 wins over the substitution by using FiveThirtyEight’s WAR Scale. Well… James produced 6.6 wins over the substitution by their standard This season alone. In just 41 games on a broken roster, James has produced what he is expected to achieve as an eighth in the first four years of his career.

James should theoretically decline with each passing season, and in a way he already is. He averaged a low career 5.6 free throw attempts per game, for example, and the proportional decrease in drives per game indicates that his athletic low limits the number of times he can attack the basket. But overall, James scores 29.1 points per game. This is the third most of his career. He made up for it by becoming much better at jumping shooting and retaining his passing abilities. James probably wouldn’t be able to direct an elite attack in his forties, but there is little evidence to suggest he couldn’t be a significant part of one of them at that point.

Even a non-premium version of James, which earns less than market value for what would likely be a lower or mid-level, deserves a decent first-round pick based on what those picks tend to achieve in the commercial market. While the days of Toronto ceding the fifth overall pick to 34-year-old Charles Oakley are long gone, mid-round picks for non-stars are treated fairly frequently. The picks are expected to come in at number 18 (Derek White(and No. 24)Karis LevertDistributed to non-stars by the 2022 deadline. Step back a bit and you’ll find better choices for a lot less. 2017 processors Dealing with the choice that has become Garrett Allen for three months from Bojan Bogdanovic. Contenders deal fairly often with post-first-round picks for a one-year lease. James is perhaps the most valuable player in basketball history.

This value is not limited to what happens in court. The economic impact of James’ signature is much greater. in 2018, Ian Begley from SNY She reported that one property group estimated that hiring James would generate approximately $65 million annually for any team that signed him. The entire surrounding community feels this effect. one study It was estimated that James would create just under $400 million in value for the Los Angeles economy over a hypothetical five seasons with the Lakers. Ticket prices and T-shirt sales soared. Bars and restaurants are filled. We live in an NBA world where Boston Celtics I recently gave up on the draft pick that has become Desmond Ben just to get rid of Anees Kanter of their luxury tax bill. No matter what their general managers advise, there will be owners willing to give up better choices for the economic opportunities that James creates.

Add it all together and it almost doesn’t matter what kind of prospect James Jr will turn out to be. His draft will depend on how high some team pick is willing to spend a year of his father’s services, and the longer James Sr. remains one of the best players in the NBA, the higher that selection will be. even going on.