Published on February 8, 2024 at 12:18 pm
If we don't have another bad winter…
Winter is late
Considering not only February, but a mild winter overall, March will bring an unpleasant surprise. Since records began, of the 10 mildest winters in Montreal, two have ended in cold. This scenario is especially difficult during trauma. Considering only February, it is marked by mildness, but the chance of being cold is more than one in three.
“In 1949, there was no cold weather in the winter,” says meteorologist Régène Ouimet. The shock came in March. On nine occasions, the month was -10°C or colder. Spring arrives with a pleasant -17.8 on March 20. In 2017, the shock was not only brutal, but a major mild spell from February 18 to March 2 allowed the mercury to reach 14 degrees. This suggested an early spring, but March decided otherwise. »
Late cold
A late cold does not always come on alone. A certain atmospheric environment still favors the arrival of arctic air in March. In fact, since 2010, Quebec has experienced at least two scenarios five times, sometimes three times a month. It is as if an evil spell is cast upon the province.
“Beyond the delay, the persistent effect of cold increases the injury,” says Réjean Ouimet. It is a trough at an elevation well connected to Quebec, which favors cold recurrences. This event is more likely in the context of colder winters, but has still occurred twice since 2010 during milder seasons.”
polar cold
In Quebec, the coldest winter temperatures are usually recorded between January 6 and February 14. There are exceptions and extreme cases. Here, our expert mentions two events occurring at Lac Benoît. It is not unusual for northern regions to experience such low temperatures, but it is rare in March. Note that on average February 16th is the last cold spell.
“This is the coldest winter since 2000,” assesses Régene Ouimet. The lowest temperature ever recorded in Quebec occurred on average on January 30. 2014 was a cold winter, 2007 was a mild winter that turned cold late. A case of significant variation. »
In collaboration with Nicolas Lessard, Bertin Ozonon and Réjean Ouimet, meteorologists
