Bitcoin Holds Over $30K as Investors Await Historically Strong July Eye Options Expiration

Could Bitcoin head higher?

On Monday, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap was recently trading near $30,165, down 0.9% over the past 24 hours and pulling back from its higher highs last Friday when BTC traveled to a one-year high above $31,300. The momentum generated by multiple spot bitcoin deposits by BlackRock and other financial services giants sent the asset soaring as investors grappled with the facts that any SEC approval was months, possibly longer, and that macroeconomic indicators remained uncertain. .

However, in a report on Sunday, Marcus Thieln, head of research at crypto services firm Matrixport, wrote that July was a historically strong month, including returns of 24%, 20% and 27% in the past three years.

“Therefore, the probability that Bitcoin will be 10-20% higher in the next 30 days is high,” Thelin wrote. “Bitcoin could be at $33,000 to $36,000 by August.”

Thielen noted that bitcoin followed a pattern this year, rising nearly $10,000 before dropping to $5,000 for the first time after the turmoil caused by the US banking crisis in March when BTC fell to $20,000 after hitting $25,000 and then after SEC lawsuits this month. against cryptocurrency. Binance and Coinbase when they fell to $25,000 from $30,000. “Now we appear on the path to $35,000 as expectations for approval of Bitcoin ETFs will bring more US institutions and retail into this space.”

Earlier this year, Matrixport predicted that bitcoin would reach $45,000 by the end of the year. The strongest BTC rallies occurred during US trading hours,” Thielen added, “a sign that US institutions are buying bitcoin while other regions are less active. The claim that ‘crypto died in the US’ appears to be a misconception,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin as the market approaches expiration of bitcoin options contracts on Friday could trigger additional price increases, or push them higher in the immediate aftermath. “If bitcoin gains momentum above $30,000 as expiration approaches, traders will buy the cryptocurrency in the spot and futures markets,” writes Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk co-editor of Markets Management. This, in turn, can lead to an exaggerated rise in prices, often called gamma pressure, or the bomber effect. On the flip side, traders will be forced to sell on a potential dip below $30,000.”

Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was recently trading at $1,854, up about 2.2% from Sunday, at the same time. In an interview with CoinDesk TV’s “First Mover,” Katie Talati, head of research at crypto asset management firm Arca, said a developer’s proposal to change the maximum validator balance on Ethereum from 32 ETH to more than 2,000 “should have no impact.” necessarily on the price of ETH,” describing the offer as a “long opportunity.”

Other major cryptocurrencies were largely in the red with ADA and SOL, tokens for smart contract platforms Cardano and Solana, both recently down more than 4%, though Bitcoin Cash was a rare bright spot, rising nearly 16% to reach To a new one- the height of the year. BCH, a spin-off from Bitcoin’s original blockchain, extended its rally to more than 100% in the week after it was one of four cryptocurrencies listed on institutional-backed cryptocurrency exchange EDX Markets.

US stock markets started the week on a bad note as the Nasdaq Technology Composite and S&P 500 closed down 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose and safe-haven assets went up.

Arca’s Talati was cautiously sanguine about investor enthusiasm following Bitcoin spot ETF deposits over the past 10 days. “The bigger problem is that most people don’t realize that ETF approval will take some time, if that happens,” she said. “The SEC has taken a very strong stance against cryptocurrency.

But, she added, “there could be more pressure on regulators to approve this vehicle, just because it’s sponsored by BlackRock. We’re also seeing other asset managers of the traditional world introduce their own ETFs, which is promising down the road in terms of getting into the asset class.” .