Ontario was expected to exit the red next year. In its annual budget tabled on Tuesday, Doug Ford's government estimates the deficit for the fiscal year at $3 billion and projects a deficit of $9.8 billion for 2024-2025.
Barring the pandemic, this is the largest deficit in ten years. At the time, liberals were in power and conservatives accused them of lavish spending.
Highlights of Budget 2024
- Gas tax reduced by 5.7 cents per liter till December 31, 2024
- $1 billion in funding for municipal infrastructure and housing
- $3.3 billion over 3 years to provide high-speed Internet across the province
- $120 million more for services for autistic children
- $200 million over 3 years for community sports and leisure infrastructure
- A new medical school opens in association with York University
- $49 million to fight car theft
- An additional $46 million for police patrols, including the purchase of 4 helicopters for the Ontario Provincial Police
Despite an economic slowdown on the horizon, the Ford government is on course to invest tens of billions in infrastructure and public transport in its 10-year plan.
In addition to cutting the gas tax at an annual cost of $1.2 billion, the government is creating a new $1 billion program for cities and housing.
A return to a balanced budget is only planned for 2026-2027.
We have a plan to get out of the red. Delayed due to economic climate. […] Quebec has a deficit of 11 billion.
Ontario should only return to a balanced budget in 2026-2027.
Photo: Radio-Canada
Criticism of the Opposition
New Democrat Marit Stiles, leader of the official opposition, says the $214.5 billion budget is full of “half-measures”.
It is a fiscally irresponsible budget.
Liberals say families are “left behind.” Never has it cost so much to do something so small.
[Doug Ford] Willfully refuses to fund the health, education and other public services we depend on
Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said in a press release.
For its part, the Ontario Medical Association, which represents doctors, welcomes the $546 million investment in primary care groups, but 2.3 million Ontarians don't have a family doctor.
The Assembly of Francophonie of Ontario (AFO), for its part, welcomes “positive” investments to improve services in French. The budget of the Ministry of Francophone Affairs should increase to 4.7 million in 2024-2025, thanks to the partnership with Ottawa.
Economic decline
Last week, Premier Doug Ford, Ontario a Economic power
.
However, in the budget, the government revises its growth projections downwards.
Ontario's economy will grow faster than expected, the Ford government admits.
Photo: Radio-Canada
For example, growth for Ontario's real GDP slows from 1.3% to 0.3% in 2024 and from 2.5% to 1.9% in 2025.
Also, the province expects sales tax revenue to decrease next year compared to this year.
Projected tax revenue for Ontario ($ billions)
| 2022-2023 (Actual Figures) | 2023-2024 (provisional figures) | 2024-2025 (Project) | 2025-2026 (Plan) | 2026-2027 (Project) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income Tax | 44.2 | 50.6 | 51.9 | 55.1 | 58.3 |
| Corporate tax | 27.8 | 24.2 | 24.9 | 26.3 | 28 |
| Sales tax | 36.1 | 39.8 | 38.8 | 40.6 | 42.7 |
Genevieve Dellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, describes the deficit forecast for 2024-2025 this way. Substantial
It's more than that Surprise
From a conservative government.
If there is a shortage, it is by force of circumstances, he says. In Ontario, the economy is not what we thought it would be, and the income is not there. That explains why the deficit is nearly $10 billion.
This is not a budget that tells Ontarians: “The government is here for you.” It is truly an economic development project that includes infrastructure.
A costly legal failure
Another factor explaining Ontario's deficit increase is the Ford government's court defeat in 2019 over a three-year half-pay freeze imposed by the province on public sector employees (Bill 124). The Ontario Court of Appeal ruled the law unconstitutional earlier this year.
Union members received a catch-up amount. The 2024 budget provides changes for 6 billion.
Education is not lifeline
Colleges and universities have sought provincial assistance to meet Ottawa's cap on international students.
However, there is no rescue plan for these institutions in the budget except for 10 million in funding for small colleges and universities or rural and northern sectors.
In fact, spending on postsecondary education is down $116 million this year, compared to the third-quarter forecast.
If it's not solid, there's nothing in the budget for you
Political scientist Genevieve Dellier says.
Teachers unions accuse Ford of underfunding public schools. The Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation (OSSTF) points out that the 2.7% increase in tuition costs is below inflation and does not account for increases in student numbers.
They call it a raise, but that's a cut
According to FEESO.
An increase in construction begins, but …
The Ford government is increasing its projections for housing starts compared to projections presented in the last budget.
The province now predicts 87,900 housing starts in 2024, nearly 9,000 more than expected. That number will rise to 94,400 by 2026, the budget said.
In theory, Ontario would need to build 125,000 to 175,000 new homes a year to meet its target of 1.5 million new homes by 2031. However, the government counts new beds in long-term care centers as housing. It is a residence for the elderly people who live there.
Auto insurance reform
Motorists have won again this year in the Ford government's budget.
In particular, the province promises to maintain free registration stickers and extend discounts on gasoline Very affordable options
About auto insurance.
Motorists may be able to waive part of their coverage if their work insurance, for example, already covers them in this area.
On the other hand, compensation linked to medical expenses in case of an accident, in particular, continues to be mandatory.
The budget does not specify what the average savings for drivers will be.
Check out this message Arabic (new window) on the site RCI (new window).
Budget cut for forest fires
Observers are expecting an even worse wildfire season this summer than last year.
However, the government is budgeting 135 million for the fight against forest fires in 2024-2025, up from 216 million this year.
In collaboration with Kamil Gauthier
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