Four Phillies will hit free agency, eligible to sign with any team five days after the World Series ends — Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Craig Kimbrel and Michael Lorenzen — and Nola and Hoskins’ cases are particularly complex.
Nola has been a workhorse, going six straight seasons without missing a start. He has performed on some of baseball’s biggest stages. He authored one of the best years in Phillies history in 2018 when he went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA.
He’s also had his share of inconsistency, finishing with a 4.63 ERA in 2021 and a 4.46 ERA in 2023. In between, he pitched to a 3.25 ERA in 205 innings with a 0.96 WHIP and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors. In 2022.
Nola will be pursued by several teams this winter. He’s one of the two or three best pitchers on the market, and his combination of catch, swing and miss, durability and playoff experience will attract plenty of suitors, even some who might be intimidated by the workload he’s endured since his arrival. In the majors for 2015.
The Dodgers desperately need to start pitching. So do the Cardinals. It is the need of the brave. This is where the market may start.
The Phillies were unable to re-sign Nola last spring, and there is a possibility that the two sides could be far apart again in negotiations this time around.
They would like to keep it. If they can’t swing a deal, finding a replacement at the top of the roster will become the Phillies’ main focus this offseason.
“Our priority is trying to sign,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Thursday afternoon. “Unfortunately, and I don’t mean this as a negative or a positive, it’s just the fact, we didn’t sign him in spring training. We would have loved to have done it but we didn’t get it done. So I can’t tell you that we’re 100 percent confident that we’re going to get this done.” But we want to sign him and we will be bold in trying to achieve that.
“If not, I respect a player’s ability to test free agency and get whatever dollar he can to meet his needs. If that happens, it’ll be sad, but he wouldn’t be the first guy I’ve ever lost to a free agent. “You still have to move on. Moving forward, you still have to move forward and try to get someone to help you. But our goal is to try to keep him with us.”
The best free-agent pitchers are Nola, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray. There are potential trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burns. It’s not a great year to look for the best promotions, which could make NOLA negotiations more difficult.
“Aaron, we love him, he’s been a great promoter of the franchise for a number of years. He’s Philly,” Dombrowski said. “We hope to keep him, but if we don’t, for me, that will be our first area, and then we’ll need to replace him, and we’ll need to be in a position where we have someone else as a starter.” “Quality pitcher in the rotation. It’s either Aaron or someone else.”
The Phillies feel comfortable with the rest of their rotation: Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez, and Taijuan Walker. All but Wheeler are under contract for at least three more seasons. Wheeler, 33, is a free agent after 2024, and Dombrowski made it quite clear Thursday that the Phillies want to keep him long-term.
He also said the organization will not rely on the prospects of having Mick Appel or Griff McGary in the Phillies’ season-opening rotation in 2024. Appel has started just one game in Triple A and is still just 22 years old. I see him throwing more strikes. Same with McGarry, who struggled mightily in his first experience at Triple A. Andrew Painter (elbow surgery) won’t factor into their plans until 2025.
“Starting deep is always a challenge for us,” Dombrowski said. “We still like Mick Appel, we think he’s very, very good. I can’t say going into the season that we’re going to rely on him to be one of our five. McGarry has gone through some adjustments. I don’t feel like he’s one of the five to start the season, and hopefully both of them can come in.” Sometime next year you can contribute.
“Getting started pitching deep will also be something we need to focus on, but along with that, we need to have a quality starter to go along with the rest of our clubhouse and that’s something we need to address (if Nola walks).”
Hoskins Conversation
Nola plays the position the Phillies need. His situation is more straightforward than that of Hoskins, who could be blocked by Bryce Harper at first base and Kyle Schwarber at DH. Harper played 51 games at first base that summer upon returning from Tommy John surgery and adapted well to the position. This could be his spot moving forward given his injury history and his importance to the Phillies. It may be less of a health risk in the long run than playing Harper in right field.
If Harper and the Phillies decide first base is his, it’s hard to imagine Hoskins returning. The Phillies took off this season when they were able to use Schwarber as a DH and improve their outfield defense. If Harper plays first base and Hoskins is re-signed, that would mean Schwarber returning to the outfield or part-time for Hoskins, neither of which seems realistic.
“In Aaron’s case, it’s very easy for me to say we want to go after him because we’re in a situation where we need a starter. And as far as Reese is concerned, there are still some moving parts that I don’t know about. Definitely at this time,” Dombrowski said.
“Our defense is important to us and I think that showed. We were a better defensive team after the August 1st scenario that we had. But again, we have to talk about that ourselves.”
A big part of that conversation is what Harper wants. Not whether Harper wants his friend and teammate back — of course he does — but whether he feels it’s time to move to first base.
“It’s like sitting down with Bryce and seeing how he feels, but I also don’t want to put it on Bryce, that’s something we have to decide for ourselves,” Dombrowski said.
