Hot nights could lead to 60 per cent rise in global death rate: Study – The Hill

While the United States continues down the path of A hot summer and with a warm fall On the way, new research sheds light on the deadly fallout from nighttime hyperthermia.

Posted in The Lancet Planetary Health. Lancet Health PlanetData from Japan, South Korea and China suggest that higher nighttime temperatures could lead to a 60 percent rise in death rates around the world by the end of the century.

Previous research on the lethal effects of overheating has typically focused on excessive daytime temperatures, while the “risks of nighttime overheating have frequently been ignored,” explained study co-author Yuqiang Zhang of the University of North Carolina in California. statement.

The authors said that the ambient heat during the night can disrupt the normal organ function of sleep and in turn lead to a range of complications including immune system damage, chronic disease and systemic infections. In urban areas, these findings may be exacerbated by The urban heat island effect.

In addition to, Display data that by the 21st century, “the total population exposed to nocturnal heat is expected to increase four to eight times compared to 2010 across the Northern Hemisphere.”

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The researchers measured the Hot Night Excess (HNE) in the three regions between 1980 and 2015 and modeled projections for the years 2016 to 2100. Various climate change scenarios were used and the measurements were controlled for the effects of average daily temperatures.

A total of 28 cities with different climates were included in the models along with daily death records from local health agencies.

By 2090, the average intensity of hot nights in these cities will nearly double from about 69 degrees Fahrenheit to 103.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Nighttime heat intensity exacerbated even under a scenario where targets Paris Agreement he met. According to the models, the regions with the lowest average temperatures had the greatest potential for warming.

“HNE is expected to occur more rapidly than daily average temperature changes,” Zhang continued. “The frequency and average intensity of hot nights will increase by more than 30% and 60% by the 21st century, respectively, compared to a less than 20% increase in average daily temperature.”

Co-author Haidong Kan of Fudan University in China added that local governments and policymakers should take the findings into account to better prepare for the imminent consequences of climate change.

However, because the data was collected from three countries, the researchers urged caution when generalizing the results to a larger population. They are currently working on developing a more comprehensive and global data set.

Meanwhile, Zhang said, “Locally, heat during the night should be taken into account when designing a future heatwave warning system, especially for vulnerable groups and low-income communities who may not be able to afford the additional expenses of air conditioning.” . “Stronger mitigation strategies, including global cooperation, should be considered to reduce the future impacts of warming.”

Posted on August 10, 2022