If May is normal, summer is...

Published on May 10, 2024 at 9:12 pm

Is it possible to make a good prediction of the shape of summer? Answer in the article.

Atmospheric engine

The complexity of the atmosphere and the various mechanisms that influence weather factors mean that change will take time. When blocking conditions prevail, the trend may continue for several weeks. This year, the second half of spring leaves something to be desired due to the coolness. Heat takes time to kick in and Quebec has to deal with the ubiquity of a tank. On the agenda: gray, unsettled and cold weather. To what extent can this unfavorable environment invade our summer? Of the 45 cases where a link could be established between May and the following summer, 18 showed both deceptions, or 40 percent.

“If the atmospheric transition towards summer conditions (reversal of the (zonal) gyre and fluid circulation from west to east) does not take place in May, this may be an indicator of summer, which leaves something to be desired,” says Régène Ouimet, a meteorologist who says that it will be very difficult to correct the situation as summer is decisive and coming. Represents the shape of summer.

Reverse path

Fortunately for us, a few years saw a turning point. This means that all is not lost: even if May is gray, the summer that follows can be saved. This year too, it’s basically the same scene. Apparently, the first third of the month is only over, but it seems that an unfavorable trend has dominated for several weeks.

“May starts off on a shaky note, which is the case this year. It’s all the more remarkable because the spring has been beautiful so far. The turnaround may be temporary and things will settle down by the end of the month. This has the effect of putting a good season back on track and then enjoying a great summer. Historically, May Contradictions between the ugly months of the month and the next summer represent 41% of the cases where there is a disagreement between the two.

Notable cases

The sample taken for this analysis includes over 80 years of climate data. However, it is relevant to consider that Quebec’s climate has been changing in recent years. In fact, excluding 1955 was the warmest summer since records began. According to Rejean Ouimet, two cases in recent years are worth mentioning.

“Between 2015 and 2019 we often experienced disappointing Mays,” notes Réjean Ouimet. Two years stand out in particular: 2017 and 2019 where the lack of sunlight was evident. In 2017, the summer didn’t really warm up, making it the 22nd ugliest of the last 82 summers. However, in 2019, the transition took a while. But summer, though short, is the fifth most beautiful. That may be our hope this year.