Job opportunities fall to their lowest levels in 3 years, as the US economy continues to slow

CNN
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The number of job openings in the United States fell for the second month in a row, hitting a new three-year low More signs of cooling in the labor market.

There were 8.06 million jobs posted available in April, according to the latest Job Opportunities and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. This is lower than the downwardly revised figure of 8.36 million seen in the previous month and the lowest since February 2021.

Economists had expected job openings to reach 8.36 million, according to FactSet estimates.

As of April, there were an estimated 1.2 jobs available per job seeker. This is the lowest percentage since June 2021, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.

The labor market has been historically strong over the past two years, providing a solid foundation for heavy consumer spending that has pushed the economy forward despite the accompanying pressures of high inflation and rising interest rates.

Layoffs remain low

In addition to the decline in job openings, other measures of labor turnover showed minimal movement in April. The exit rate, which measures voluntary separation as a percentage of total employment, stabilized at 2.2% for the sixth month in a row.

The number of new employees rose slightly to 5.64 million from 5.62 million; Total smoking cessations rose to 3.51 million from 3.41 million; The number of layoffs fell to 1.52 million from 1.6 million in March.

Layoffs are at their lowest level since December 2022.

“The decline in job openings suggests a slowdown in the pace of hiring in the coming months. However, layoffs remain low, so net job growth should remain “Positively.”

Job growth has already slowed from its rapid pace during the pandemic recovery. This slowdown was evident in April, when only 175,000 jobs were added, according to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates.

Slowing job growth could put the labor market closer to pre-pandemic levels, but it could also mean a slowdown in the broader economy. In its fight against high inflation, the Fed wants to see demand decline and price increases slow further. Before lowering interest rates.

The Consumer Price Index, the most widely used measure of inflation, It showed that the pace of price increases slowed to 3.4% in April.

“The Fed will welcome signs of cooler labor market conditions, but the JOLTS data does not change our view that the Fed will be content to keep interest rates at current levels through September,” Vanden Houten wrote. “The labor market remains healthy enough to allow the Fed’s decisions to be guided primarily by inflation readings.”

She said inflation data in April was encouraging. However, the Fed “needs to see more than a month of good data before cutting rates.”

However, job openings are still above pre-pandemic levels — about 1.09 million higher than in February 2020, and 3.55 million higher than the average from December 2000 to February 2019 — but there are a lot of caveats at play. A role in JOLTS.

First, survey response rates are half what they were ten years ago (33% in 2024 versus 68% in 2014), although they have risen somewhat since To the bottom during the pandemic.

Second, the labor market has become a different animal than it was 10 or 20 years ago. Labor force participation rates They have been in decline since the turn of the century due to demographic shifts (largely, aging baby boomers) and certainly because… Effects of the epidemic (Early retirement, mortality, long Covid and caregiving needs).