Even though François Legault is unpopular, his party has managed to stop the bleeding and even rebound, so the CAQ will start the summer holidays with an increase in voting intent.
A clarity is breaking through the clouds that have been hovering over Prime Minister François Legault’s training for months.
Although Paul St-Pierre Plamenton’s Parti Québécois still sits atop the latest leger-Newspaper-DVA, held from May 31 to June 3 with 32% of the vote in Quebec, saw the CAQ again close the gap by three points.
“This is significant because they have been struggling for months,” explains pollster Jean-Marc Léger. The CAQ is coming back, taking points mainly from the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party.
“The less we see of them in the media, the better they do in the polls,” Mr. Leger studies.
At the same time, the popularity of François Legault is less. Only 20% of those polled believe she would make a good prime minister, compared to 26% for the PQ leader.
“Many people vote for the CAQ, are satisfied with the CAQ, but do not like François Legault,” notes Jean-Marc Léger.
The Quebec Mystery
For its part, the PQ is stagnating. Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon’s formation remains the leading party among French-speakers, but it is tightening with the CAQ regaining 4% among these voters.
“In the regions, it’s really a two-way fight between the PQ and the CAQ,” notes the pollster.
The Quebec region, however, is giving pollsters a headache.
Last May, the CAQ regained momentum in the national capital. PQ got 32% of objectives and CAQ 29%. After four weeks, CAQ lost 5 points.
“It moves around a little bit. It’s an area that varies quite a bit from one month to the next,” said Mr. Leger notes. He said the CAQ vote in Quebec was “weak.”
GND reduces its fall
Amid the crisis caused by the resignation of co-spokesperson Émilise Lessard-Terrien, supporters of Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois fell to the polls in early May. QS even aligned with Eric Duheim’s conservatives.
The GND’s gains stopped falling when the QS National Council adopted the Saguenay Declaration. The left-wing party takes 2 points in voting intention and four points above the conservatives.
“At 14%, it’s back to the threshold they had before the chicken,” notes Jean-Marc Léger.
The young men parted
Despite this rise, the QS continues to slowly lose youth support, to the detriment of the Parti Québécois.
Only 27% of young people vote QS for PQ. Solidarity already has 40% support among 18-24 year olds.
“Soon, the youth party will no longer be the party of QS. From survey to survey, it gets tighter,” said Mr. Leger points out.
The survey also makes it possible to take the pulse of the electorate following the recent National Councils.
“We feel that the QS is positive and so is the CAQ. The liberals’ opinion was negative because people don’t like austerity very much,” notes Jean-Marc Léger.
During their National Council, the Liberals announced a return to budget “austerity”. They now have 15% voting intentions, down two points.
The LEO was conducted from May 31 to June 3, 2024, among 1,015 Quebecers aged 18 or older, using an online panel. In comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1015 respondents was ±3.08%, 19 times out of 20.
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