Denis Goderre's arrival as leader of Quebec's Liberal Party shows a new leger-de-camp that will allow the party to finally rise to the polls.Newspaper– Watt. No offense to skeptics, the “Godere effect” is very real.
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Indeed, the PLQ, led by Montreal's former mayor, will receive 21% of voting intentions, compared to 15% currently under interim leader Marc Tanguy.
You have to return to December 2020 to get the same score.
“Denis Goderre has a real effect on voting intentions. This allows the Liberal Party to return to the electoral fight, which it currently lacks,” underlines Jean-Marc Léger.
The former federal minister will find this support “almost everywhere” in other political parties and in different parts of Quebec. “They are orphan liberals, federalists, scattered,” observes the pollster.
Although he has yet to confirm his intention to run for leadership in the spring of 2025, Denis Coderre recently promoted his potential candidacy during a major media tour.
Conversely, if she decides to jump into the fray, Liberal MP Marwa Riski won't move the electoral needle. The Liberal MP, who is pregnant with her second child, has already ruled out running, despite calls from many political analysts.
“Marva Risky has an exceptional performance in the bedroom, but she remains a creature of the medium,” observes the head of the Leger company.
Under Frédéric Beauchemin, the only candidate expected in the upcoming contest, the Liberal Party's situation will deteriorate completely. The Liberals would charge 2% less than today.
- Listen to the interview with Jean-Marc Leger, head of polling firm Leger, speaks to Mario Dumont via QUB:
Even among liberals
If he decides to go for it, Denis Coderre will leave with significant support among liberal voters: 27% of whom believe he would be the best leader for their party.
This support is more than former prime minister Jean Charest, Antoine Dionne-Charest (11%), and Marwah Rizqy (10%) would receive if they decided to try their luck.
Frédéric Beauchemin and Balarama Holness are “within the margin of error”.
However, the ex-mayor's dominance is very fragile. He is currently riding on his notoriety, but must pass a credibility test with Quebec voters.
“The old Denis Goderre is sure to be rejected like the Montrealers rejected him twice,” says Jean-Marc Léger.
But he believes that if he comes up with solutions to the problems that the citizens are currently experiencing, the voters will be ready to listen to him.
A problem for CAQ
Also, the arrival of Denis Coderre will mark a new red light on the CAQ dashboard.
In fact, 28% of CAQ members believe that the former mayor would be the best leader for the PLQ. According to Jean-Marc Léger, these are federal voters who may leave François Legault's party.
“The Nationalists were elected by Paul St-Pierre Plamenton, and then Denis Goderre made a certain impression with the CAQ federalists. This is not good news for the CAQ,” notes Mr. Léger.
method
The online survey was conducted between February 2 and 5, 2024, in French and English among 1,032 Quebecers aged 18 and over. Data were weighted to represent the population. A margin of error cannot be calculated for a sample drawn from a panel, but by comparison, the maximum margin of error for such a sample is ±3.05% (Quebec), 19 times out of 20.
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