NBA MVP Straw Poll 3.0.0 Update

If ESPN’s recent MVP poll in 2022-23 is any indication, buckle up, as Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid beats Denver Nuggets center and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.

by two points.

Not only has Embiid surpassed Jokić in total points — from 790 to 788 — but Jokić actually has more first-place votes (42 for Jokić, 40 for Embiid). The difference: Embiid finished second on 45 ballots — six more than Jokic — to give the Sixers’ big man a slight lead over his rival.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo — a two-time MVP in his own right — has 18 remaining first-place votes, and he lurks within striking distance as the MVP of the team with the most wins (55) in the league, making A difficult choice for voters is even more difficult.

Add it all up, and with only a few days left in the regular season, many of those polled are still unsure how they will ultimately vote.

“These may not be my final answers,” said one voter.

Another asked, “Can’t you wait until the regular season is over?”

The biggest takeaway from the poll — which was conducted in a 36-hour period from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night in the wake of Embiid missing Monday’s highly anticipated showdown with Jokic in Denver due to a right calf injury — is that the already-controversial MVP race will be truly a place. Doubt until the league announces the winner during the first part of this year’s playoffs.

“Can they get even with the best player?” Dallas coach Jason Kidd said with a smile before Wednesday night’s game between the Mavericks and the Embied 76ers in Philadelphia.

“Let’s see if we can get this done.”

A historically tight race to the finish

Embiid’s two-point margin of victory, if it were to carry over to the actual MVP vote at the end of the season, would easily trump the closest race since media voting became the norm during the 1980-81 season.

After the 1989-90 campaign, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley, and Michael Jordan were in the Hall of Famers together, with Barkley receiving the most votes at 38.

But while Johnson finished with 27 first-place votes, what pushed him over the top to win the award was his second-place finish in 38 ballots. Combined with Jordan’s finish—he had 21 first-place votes, with more second- and third-place votes than Barkley—that allowed the final vote to swing in favor of Johnson.

History may repeat itself with the vote between Embiid, Jokic and Antitokonmo. But the race for MVP 2023 didn’t start that way.

It was clear that this year’s race had its chance wide open when, in the first poll of the season in December, Boston Celtics forward Jason Tatum led by just 92 points. At the time, that margin was the second-smallest in the polls taken since the 2016-17 season. (The closest came in the middle of last season, when Embiid led Jokic by a total of 35 points.)

The vote swung towards Jokic in the second poll, which was taken before the All-Star break. Jokic received 77 out of 100 first-place votes, with Antetokounmpo (11 first-place votes) in second place and Embiid (six first-place votes) in third.

At the time, Jokic’s progress appeared to have been solidified and so was his bid to claim the award for the third consecutive season – something only Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell have done.

But a series of factors caused the race to tighten dramatically.

There was a reversal from Jokic’s large lead in the MVP odds, as many voters in the polls expressed a higher bar to clear for a third consecutive MVP. Denver lost four straight and five of six games earlier this month. Philadelphia, for its part, has won eight straight games against the league’s toughest post-All-Star schedule, according to ESPN Stats & Information Research. Milwaukee won 26 of the 30 games with Antetokounmpo in the lineup.

One of the final big moments of the season – Embiid and Jokic’s clash – was missed when Embiid sat out with a calf injury.

“I think Joel’s work speaks for itself,” 76ers coach Doc Rivers said. “We did the right thing there, so I don’t think that’s fair. You haven’t been judged in one game, I know.

“You get judged all season long, by your team’s record and how you play. And he was dominant.”

The issue of the top three, and why Giannis could play a spoiler

Every star in the Embiid-Jokic-Antetokounmpo trio is more than worthy.

Jokic led Denver to the best record in the Western Conference, with averages of 24.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists. He’s on hand to become just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double for a single season—and the only 7-footer to do so—matching the exploits of Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook.

Embiid leads the league in scoring (33.2 points per game) for the second consecutive season to go along with averages of 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. The 76ers are close to guarding the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Playoffs.

Antetokounmpo averages 31.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists for the team with the best record in the league.

And Antetokounmpo is close enough that it’s not inconceivable that he could leapfrog both Jokic and Embiid in the MVP vote, as Antetokounmpo finished last in the poll with 18 first-place votes, 15 second-place votes and 64 third-place votes for a total 612 points.

But at the expense of the center of the star?

The best of the rest – and the end of another kings drought?

A Grand Canyon-sized gap finished below the top three with Tatum in fourth. He received 90 out of 100 votes in fourth place and finished with a total of 292 points. Another big slump followed, as Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (37 points), Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shay Gilgos Alexander (32 points), Sacramento Kings center Domantas Sabonis (20 points) and Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (15 points). With large portions of fifth place votes.

Voters struggled to choose which star would finish fifth on the ballots, with some unsure of being able to award the MVP vote to a player on a sub-. 500 team, like Oklahoma City’s Dallas Doncic and Oklahoma City’s Gilgos Alexander.

Some voters wanted to reward Sabonis for the way the Kings performed this season, securing a winning record and a playoff berth for the first time since the 2005-2006 campaign.

And if Sabonis gets any MVP votes this season, he’ll break a longer streak than the Sacramento drought: Peja Stojakovic in 2003-04 was the last King to receive an MVP vote, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Closing the field: Miami Heat striker Jimmy Butler (four points) in ninth place, Kings guard D’Aaron Fox and Celtics forward Gaylen Brown (three points) in a tie for tenth, Golden State Warriors goalkeeper Stephen Curry (two points) in twelfth place. Devin Booker and forward Memphis Grizzlies, the Phoenix Suns, are tied for 13th with one point.