Antarctica is losing some of its weight, allowing the continent to rise out of the ocean like a sponge that was once compressed and is now free to expand again.
This weight is her ice.
This process is called post-glacial uplift, and new research suggests it will have a huge impact on future global sea level rise. It could reduce Antarctica’s contribution by about 40%, or it could make things much worse, depending on how much fossil fuels we continue to emit, trapping heat and melting ice.
“With nearly 700 million people living in coastal areas, and the potential cost of sea level rise estimated to be trillions of dollars by the end of the century, understanding the domino effect of melting Antarctica is critical.” He says Natalia Gomez, glaciologist at McGill University.
In the past few years, the ice level in Antarctica has remained stubbornly low.
A look at the ridiculous extremes of sea ice in #Antarctica this year and last… 😳 Full seasonal cycle charts available at zacklabe.com/antarctic-se…
— Zach Labe (@zlabe.bsky.social) July 28, 2024 at 11:24 AM
Gomez and his colleagues examined the layer of ground beneath the Antarctic ice sheet and found that it was particularly soft in key areas. Seismic data revealed that it was this high level of viscosity that was causing the ground to rise unexpectedly quickly.
“Our measurements show that the solid ground that forms the base of the Antarctic ice sheet is changing shape at an astonishing rate.” He says Terry Wilson, geologist, Ohio State University.
“The rise in land level due to the loss of ice on the surface occurs over decades, not millennia.”
The team then used 3D modeling to simulate sea level rise due to changing land mass in Antarctica across different scenarios. If warming levels are maintained, a littleThis contributes to sea levels rising by up to 1.7 metres (5.6 feet) by 2500, but this could rise to 19.5 metres if we continue. Allowing global warming to continue unabated.
This is because the ice sheet is retreating faster than it is rising, which releases more water into the oceans. But if we can slow this melting, the rising land will lift some of the ice away from the warm ocean waters, allowing it to be preserved for longer.
“This study represents a major advance in our ability to better predict the impacts of climate change on sea level rise and inform effective environmental policy.” He says Rob DeConto, glaciologist at the University of Massachusetts.
Since the Earth is not a perfectly smooth sphere, different parts of our planet will experience unique effects on sea level thanks to gravitational, rotational, and geological oddities.
Our results further support recently Results “Low-latitude islands and coastal locations that are already affected by sea-level rise will experience higher-than-average sea-level rise associated with Antarctic ice loss, regardless of the ice-loss scenario,” Gomes and his team say. Explains.
This discovery highlights the climate injustice Towards countries with low emissions, but high exposure and vulnerability to sea level rise.”
The researchers caution that the model is still shrouded in significant uncertainty, particularly because of the lack of seismic data from West Antarctica. And the estimates don’t even take into account what’s happening to ice in Greenland and the world’s mountains.
Due to persistent anomalous conditions in the Arctic and Antarctic, the total global sea ice extent is at a record low for this time, about *4 million square kilometers* below the 1981-2010 average…
More graphics: zacklabe.com/global-sea-i…
— Zach Labe (@zlabe.bsky.social) July 30, 2024 at 10:45 AM
“To document how rapidly our world is changing, it is critical that we continue to develop our ability to make more certain predictions, which is the only path that will allow us to care about our future in a meaningful way.” It is clear Wilson.
sea level rise We are Really impressive Low islands Like those in Kiribati. Most South Tarawa Located less than 3 metres above sea level, the villagers of Temeco are trying to Block the ocean with sandbags.But these floods submerged homes earlier this year, contaminating crop soil and water wells with salt.
Meanwhile, Wetlands under siege Between rising water levels and human infrastructure such as roads. The loss of these ecosystems, which Water filtration and corrosion controlThis means that sea level rise will affect these areas more strongly.
“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions “Solid Earth rebound would allow it to play a greater role in preserving more of the Antarctic ice sheet and avoiding the worst of the unfair impacts of future climate change on global coastlines,” Gomez and colleagues say. conclude.
This research was published in Scientific progress.
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