Communist senator Fabian Kay promises a real “round of applause” on Thursday. After years of waiting, a free trade agreement between Canada and the European Union will finally be put to a vote… and it could be defeated.
A trade deal between Ottawa and the EU signed in 2016 has been applied provisionally since 2017. More than 99% of tariffs have been eliminated on industrial goods, while in the case of agricultural goods, Canada and the European Union have raised tariffs of more than 90%.
For the treaty to be formally applicable, it must be ratified by all member states of the European Union. So far, 17 legislatures have given the green flag, including Germany and Sweden. But in 10 countries including France and Italy, this process is not complete.
In France, the National Assembly approved the deal by a narrow majority in 2019, but the Senate has yet to rule.
Conceived thirty years ago, these agreements are today socially and ecologically obsolete. It is impossible for objects to circle the planet three times in a row
Communist elected official Fabian Kay announced at a press conference last week, clarifying his opposition to the text.
The French Senate is due to vote on a free trade agreement between the EU and Canada on Thursday.
Photo: Hans Lucas/AFP / Mathilde Kaskowski via Getty Images
Its stance echoes that of some farming groups, such as Confederation Bison, which condemned the deal in 2022. Organizes international competition that drives down prices to the detriment of social and environmental quality
.
In addition to left-leaning elected officials, right-wing Republican senators have also recommended against giving the green light to ratify the deal.
We are for free trade, but fair
Senate Republican Leader Bruno Retailio announced.
The resulting political environment
After almost seven years of partial application, economist Charlotte Emlinger of the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII) believes that France has nevertheless managed to do better from a business perspective.
Looking at trade on a French scale, we see that we were the winners
She assures.
According to a report by the French Ministry of Economy, between 2017 and 2023, French exports to Canada increased by 33%, while imports from Canada to France increased by 35%.
Economist Charlotte Emlinger highlights French cheese, which saw a 57% increase in its exports between 2016 and 2022, particularly due to appeal protections in the Canadian territory.
In response, he recalled, the Canadian livestock industry did not significantly increase its presence in European territory due to the imposition of quotas and standards, which worried many French farmers. Canada hasn't even met its beef quota
The economist notes.
The crisis rocking the agricultural world in many European countries is having political consequences in France. On Monday, President Macron convened his ministers to take stock, and his government promised new measures to respond to farmers' demands.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Raphaël Bouvier-Auclair
In this case, why such resistance? As European elections approach in June, the political environment will be a key part of the response.
It's a political posturing that is part of farmers' discontent and fear of other deals that could have more impact on agriculture.
, Charlotte Emlinger believes. For example, it recalls the fears of many farmers and politicians about the free trade agreement currently being negotiated with the Latin American grouping of countries, Mercosur.
The Mercosur group consists of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. It is currently negotiating a free trade agreement with the European Union.
The French government, which says it opposes the deal with Mercosur, is defending ratification of the deal with Canada.
That [un rejet] It risks sending a devastating message to ally Canada.
On the BFM business television channel, the French foreign minister defended an agreement was constructed
This, according to him, allows Europe to be created Strategic autonomy
With easy access to Canadian hydrocarbons and metals.
What are the consequences of rejection?
If senators decide not to ratify the deal on Thursday, a chain reaction could follow.
The National Assembly, which ratified the deal in 2019, may be called to vote again. However, since then, legislative elections have greatly changed the political landscape, and President Emmanuel Macron's coalition lacks an absolute majority.
Already in 2019, despite the majority, the agreement was narrowly approved due to the departure of the presidential camp. Given the new structure of the Legislature, the possibility of rejection by representatives seems higher than it was five years ago.
In a broadcast of BFM Business, Minister Frank Reister mentioned a possible way of a legislative procedure to avoid such a conclusion, which according to the newspaper the worldIt could eventually force the European Commission to suspend the treaty's provisional application.
But rejection by a national parliament does not mean the end of the deal. Thus, in 2020, elected officials in Cyprus largely resisted ratifying the agreement, but since the government did not officially notify Brussels of this decision, the survival of the agreement was not threatened.
Dirk de Bevre, professor of political science at the University of Antwerp, moderates the implications for Europe of the decision of French elected officials.
According to him, since the European Parliament and the Council have given the green light to the agreement, its temporary application can continue with the sharing of powers between Brussels and its member states. A situation A little different
At the legal level, it recognizes the educator.
What is important in practice is the temporary application of the contract. So, we are already reducing barriers to trade
Judge Dirk de Bevre.
Nevertheless, the open opposition of a section of the French political class sends a message regarding the deal.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and European Council President Donald Tusk attend the signing ceremony of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) at the European Council in Brussels, Belgium on October 30, 2016.
Photo: Reuters / Francois Lenoir
In 2016, the signing ceremony of the agreement between Justin Trudeau and European leaders was postponed for a few days due to protests by elected officials in Belgium's French-speaking region of Wallonia.
Almost seven years later, discontent is being heard in France.
Will the thunderbolts announced in the Senate reverberate all the way to Brussels or even Ottawa?
One thing is for sure, it will take time to feel the impact of the vote. Recent years have proven that when it comes to free trade agreements, lightning speed is far from over.
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