- A Coinbase analyst sees a 30-40% chance of approval for Ethereum ETFs.
- Ethereum’s dominance and performance are at rock-bottom levels, indicating a need for positive development soon.
It is generally believed that the SEC will not approve any applications to purchase Ethereum spot currency [ETH] ETF due to several factors that point to the fact that the agency’s new crypto enemy is Ethereum.
But so far, no real confirmation has been received from the agency itself about what it is planning. So there is still a chance, no matter how slim, that the SEC will approve these ETFs.
However, if they do, is the market ready for this impact? How will the Ethereum price react?
Odds of approval for ETFs
David Hahn, institutional research analyst at Coinbase, notes that there could be a surprising upside.
In Coinbase monthly forecast a report Published on May 15, Han stated that the odds of approval were between 30-40%.
Likewise, said Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst hiring His approval rating is 35%. Meanwhile, the crypto community has taken to… reconnaissance From Polymarket the overall estimate is 7% odds of approval.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink echoed the somewhat optimistic sentiment during an appearance on CNBC, saying that the SEC may approve ETH ETFs even if it considers Ethereum to be a security.
What does the data tell us?
If the SEC approves the ETF, the market could see an unexpected rally. However, Ethereum’s dominance and recent performance are heading towards an all-time low.
Their SEC status as securities has negatively impacted investment sentiment.
No one expects approval, so Ether prices will likely see little movement in the near future.
Bitcoin [BTC] Price had a tough reaction to ETF approvals earlier this year. The community was really looking forward to it.
at recent days, Financing rate was relatively low or negative, which could mean cooling upward momentum or increased caution among traders, especially during price declines such as occurred in mid-April.
Source: Coinglas
Furthermore, the increase in open interest despite lower trading volumes suggests that traders may be preparing for significant price movements ahead, as positions are built.
But Ethereum trading Schedule It shows a steady upward trend over a two-day period. The highest price point just above $3,160 could act as a short-term resistance level.
Read about Ethereum [ETH] Price forecasts 2024-25
Monitoring how the price reacts when it retests this level can be crucial for short-term investment strategies.
Source: Trading View
Given the strong bullish momentum and successful price recovery after the pullback, if the market maintains its bullish sentiment, Ethereum will likely break through the current resistance level.
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