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June 9, 2023 | 3:23 p.m
Campi Flegrei has been going through a “turbulent” period for about 70 years. Scientists say this modeling is the first of its kind in an attempt to predict rupture of an active volcano.
A new study shows that Campi Flegrei, an Italian volcano that last erupted nearly 500 years ago, is becoming more anxious and could erupt again.
Located in southern Italy, Campi Flegrei’s last recorded eruption was in 1538. According to NASA, the Campi Flegrei caldera, or “fire fields,” are built from overlapping volcanic features, including calderas, domes, and cinder cones.
Geologists from University College London and Italy’s National Research Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology published a study on Friday using modeling of recent earthquake activity and ground uplift to show that the volcano has been “stretched almost to breaking point” and could erupt.
Predicting when a volcano will erupt is not a perfect science.
Scientists use techniques including looking at the history of a volcano’s eruption, seismological detections of earthquakes, and monitoring ground deformation and changes in gas emissions to predict when an eruption is imminent.
According to the Smithsonian Global Volcano Program, earthquakes and tremors always happen before a volcano erupts.
The study authors say Campi Flegrei contains those ingredients for an explosion. The volcano has been “turbulent” for more than 70 years, and tens of thousands of small earthquakes have occurred, along with uplifting of the ground in Pozzuoli, Italy which has stretched the volcano’s crust.
Expect an active volcano
The team used a model based on the physics of how rocks break up to start predicting the behavior of the volcano.
“Our first use of this model was in 2017, and since then, Campi Flegrei has behaved as we expected it to, with an increasing number of small earthquakes indicating pressure from below,” said study author Christopher Kilburn of the University of California in Geosciences. “We will now have to adjust our procedures to estimate the chances of opening up new routes for magma or gas to reach the surface.”
One of the biggest clues is watching the seismic pattern, which indicates that the rocks at Campi Flegrei are fractured, rather than stretched.
According to the study, the maximum stress the Campi Flegrei can withstand before breaking when screwed is about one-third of what it was in 1984.
“We can’t see what’s going on underground,” said Stefania Danesi of ING in Bologna. “Instead, we have to decipher the clues that the volcano is giving us, such as earthquakes and Earth-lifting.”
The study shows that parts of the volcano are becoming weaker and that earthquakes are causing fluids, such as magma or molten rock and gases, to move down the Campi Flegrei.
Even with all signs of a rift in the future, the team said that doesn’t mean it will.
“Campi Flegrei may settle into a new routine of gently rising and falling, as has been seen in similar volcanoes around the world, or simply return to rest,” Danisi said. We can’t yet say for sure what will happen. The point is to be prepared for all the consequences.”
Scientists say this modeling is the first of its kind in an attempt to predict rupture of an active volcano. The team plans to apply this model to other volcanoes.
“It marks a step change in our goal to improve explosion forecasts around the world,” Kilborn said.
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