National and international crises are expected to worsen in the coming years and could have a significant impact on the Canadian government and federal police, according to an internal report prepared by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, a copy obtained by CBC News.
The global community has experienced a series of crises caused by COVID-19, supply chain issues and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, events that have sent shock waves around the world.
The report titled Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends for Canada.
The situation is likely to worsen in the next five years as the first effects of climate change and global recession add to the current crises.
This document was prepared by a committee set up in 2022 RCMP To evaluate the strategic opportunities of the organization.
This report was provided under an information request to Matt Malone, assistant professor of law at Thompson-Rivers University in British Columbia. Mr. Malone sent it CBC News.
The RCMP anticipates challenges that will disrupt the work of its police officers in the coming years
Photo: Radio-Canada / Ben Nelms
The nine-page report, with several paragraphs redacted, examines the changes in the national and international environment that can have a significant impact on the Canadian government RCMP
.
Federal Police spokesman Robin Percival explained CBC News The report was written from March to December 2022 to allow Understanding the situation and making informed decisions
Within five years of its manufacture. The document has not been updated since then.
It is based, among other things, on publicly accessible and declassified, analyzes of police organizations and documents from national and international governmental and private organizations.
Big challenges
The report paints a grim picture of the challenges faced RCMP And in the coming years the Government of Canada.
The geopolitical, economic, social, technological and environmental changes presented are complex and constantly evolving.
The report says. They can disrupt or redefine law enforcement tasks and operations in unexpected ways. Both small and large changes have the potential to cause many disruptions in the organization.
Climate change will have a significant impact, the report says.
In the next five years, scientists expect more violent and simultaneous storms, severe droughts and floods, and frequent heat waves around the planet, which will reduce global production of various basic products.
Law enforcement should expect these types of devastating weather events to affect all aspects of government, including damage to critical infrastructure and increased pressure to cede Arctic territory.
Episodes of icy conditions in Quebec in 2023 caused a lot of damage and put a strain on the province's hydroelectric network. (archive photo)
Photo: Radio-Canada / Fred Cusson
The report points out that extreme weather events are likely to affect indigenous communities more frequently and disproportionately because many of them are located in rapidly warming locations.
Additionally, these events are even more complex when they occur at the same time as other major crises, which require resources RCMP.
Emergency management planning should be considered by law enforcement leaders to maintain continuity at the level of service. Building capacity by attracting and retaining qualified personnel is a challenge for law enforcement.
Declining living standards and polarization
Political polarization and the threat of economic recession will also be a challenge, the report said.
The coming recession will accelerate the decline in living standards
This will especially affect the younger generation.
For example, Canadians under the age of 35 are less likely to purchase property. As the wealth gap is wider in developed countries than in previous generations, the consequences of declining living standards will worsen.
Populists have capitalized on rising political polarization and conspiracy theories, and adapted their messaging to appeal to radical movements, the report added. It also points to the rise of authoritarian movements in many liberal and democratic countries.
Homeless encampments are mushrooming on the outskirts of Edmonton.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Emilio Avalos
Law enforcement should expect social and political polarization to continue, fueled by disinformation campaigns and distrust of democratic institutions.
According to the report, new information technologies also pose significant challenges RCMP.
Law enforcement must expect that criminals will use technological innovations to gain profit and influence. Law enforcement must also continue to contribute to policy changes related to the protection of personal information, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and quantum computing.
The study cited a 10% risk of another pandemic taking over the world in the future.
Underestimated challenges
Michael Kempa, associate professor of criminology at the University of Ottawa, welcomes the report and the creation of the special unit. RCMP.
They have this special team that monitors major trends and threats to the work of the federal police so the RCMP can deal with them. It is positive.
Mr. Kemba believes the report correctly identifies the challenges faced RCMP and Central Govt.
The only thing I underestimated was urgency RCMP Be prepared to face these challenges
he said.
A criminologist believes RCMP There is still some time to make the necessary changes, such as hiring competent personnel to deal with such critical issues.
For Christian Leuprecht, a professor specializing in security and defense at Queen's University and the Royal Military College, the report shows a specific connection between the threat and the level of preparedness of Canadian federal agencies. Technical challenges and unpreparedness to deal with emergencies particularly strikes him.
Part of what we see [dans ce rapport]This disconnect between strategic threat assessment and resources, capabilities and political will promises to make Canada more difficult in the future.
he said.
— Based on a report by Elizabeth Thompson of CBC News
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