On some level, Team USA’s quest for the Olympic gold medal in men’s basketball is a race against time.
For NBA stars who play international basketball for national teams, FIBA’s rules are different enough to require some real adjustments to their game. Given their lack of familiarity—even the most experienced U.S. internationals have far fewer reps than players in the European powers—it’s been a constant process since the summer began.
In every tournament, the game within the game is whether the most talented team can make enough adjustments to beat opponents with greater knowledge of the rules of the game.
At the Tokyo Olympics, they managed that — barely — from losing friendlies to Nigeria and Australia to falling to France in the preliminary rounds and then beating the French 5-0 in the gold medal match. At the 2019 and 2023 World Cups … they haven’t had much success. The U.S. lost to Serbia and France to finish seventh in 2019; they lost to Lithuania, Germany and Canada to finish fourth in 2023.
Some might argue that the U.S. was hurt in those World Cups by the lack of competitive qualifying matches that would have prepared them for the final stages. The Olympics were probably better for the U.S. because only 12 teams were invited instead of 32. Given the small number of teams, almost all of the games were against strong to good teams, and the 110-62 win over Jordan was not enough to distract them.
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By the time the knockout rounds begin on Aug. 6, the U.S. will have played every gold medal contender except France. The friendlies schedule includes Canada, Australia, Serbia and Germany, and the U.S. will play Serbia again in the group stage (along with somewhat lighter games against South Sudan and Puerto Rico).
The first two of those friendlies—against Canada and Australia—were very different from the games the U.S. is likely to face against Germany, Serbia and France. I feel this more acutely because I watched each of the latter three teams play their friendlies.
The United States still plays NBA basketball and has yet to adjust to FIBA basketball, and while the top two teams are talented, they have been of little help in this regard.
In Canada’s case, it’s unfortunate that our friends to the north were the only potential opponents for the USA Basketball team in North America before they headed across the ocean; I’d say it was just as bad for Canada. All both teams needed was to play FIBA-caliber players as soon as possible.
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Instead, two star-studded teams played an NBA game in Las Vegas on Wednesday (I was in attendance, along with A fellow basketball fan named Barry. While the crowd was excited and the U.S. got the result they wanted, they barely managed a point per possession against an unimpressive Canadian offensive line, and funny enough, they only made 23 three-point attempts in an FIBA game with Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum on the team.
Things were better against Australia on offense, even as the USA committed a high number of fouls (18) and occasionally switched to the level-ball style that has been a problem at the World Cup. The Australians may have been the worst shooters of any serious medal contender, hitting just 4 of 18 three-pointers, but the fact that they still scored 92 points is worrying.
Which brings us to what’s next, the adjustment part. Take a look at the results from the outside: France, Serbia and Germany are playing a different game. Even with three All-Star midfielders on the pitch, France and Serbia combined for 56 hat-tricks and 51 doubles in their friendly on Friday. The previous day, the French and Germans had played two games and combined for 112 hat-tricks and 126 doubles.
While threes played a much bigger role, these teams also played a slower, darker game. The losing team failed to score 70 points in each of these three games, and offensive rebounding—the problem that threatens the 2023 U.S. World Cup team—was central (and incredibly frequent) in two of them.
There’s no reason the U.S. can’t play that way, too, and history tells us that the American side tends to improve as the tournament progresses. Getting Kevin Durant back—a historically American cheat code in international play—and taking greater advantage of the shorter international three-point line would help. Unlike last summer, size is not a factor with Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo on the roster.
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Embiid perhaps best illustrates the challenge the United States faces. He has never played international basketball at this level, and his discomfort during his FIBA tournament preparations was evident. He was aggressive against Canada, started slowly against Australia, and looked better in the second half, but so far, Davis has been the better option.
Yet even in his minutes, there are small moments that make you wonder how the United States will be able to adapt on the offensive side.
Here’s the Adebayo-Davis pass when they shared the court on Monday. It was one of many in the two exhibition games where the U.S. team couldn’t quite get the distance for a three-pointer. Instead, it almost felt like the U.S. team shrugged and said, “I guess we’ll take a 20-foot, 2-inch pass.”
But that piece is relatively small. In the bigger picture, there’s another piece that explains a lot about how different FIBA’s offensive style is.
Here’s LeBron James’ close-range shot. See what’s different from NBA shots? A big guy is standing right under the basket, just moving. James won’t get a clear shot at the rim even if he outsmarts his opponent. What’s worse is that his opponent knows this and feels emboldened to pressure him and take away a close-range shot, too.
An extra defender at the rim is nothing in the NBA because of the defensive three-second rule, and that changes everything. (Defensively, the U.S. doesn’t always figure out when to leave that defender hanging.) Many possessions that end with Anthony Edwards going one-on-five for a long-range shot are a direct result of that guy at the rim going one-on-one.
The elixir that helps defenders solve the offensive circle problem is speed in cutting and moving the ball, a type of organization that takes time to master as a unit. Compare the USA attack to some of the possessions from France vs. Serbia on Friday. Watch France’s first play of the second half. The French are dribbling the ball left to right and back; all five players touch it in quick succession before the sixth pass in the sequence results in a wide-open corner kick 3:
The United States is not capable of possessing such a weapon at the present time. And if the Americans get there, no one will be able to touch them.
The European teams and players the U.S. will face have years of experience playing each other in FIBA summer tournaments, dating back to their teenage years. Some are NBA players, yes, but they never lose their FIBA skills; they are so ingrained in them.
The Americans, meanwhile, have three weeks to make up for lost time. They also have more talent, and at the Olympics, especially, that has often proved to be a difference maker. But make no mistake: The Americans are in a familiar race against time to learn FIBA, and one could argue that the first two games have been a tough test without much education. Serbia awaits its next game, and that is when the United States will conceivably begin. TRUE Editing begins.
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(Top image of USA vs. Australia: Christopher Pike/Getty Images)
