The warmest winter Canada has known in its history will end Tuesday evening, with the spring equinox occurring early Wednesday morning, except on the East Coast.
Climate scientists say such mild winters could have far-reaching effects on everything from wildfires to riverbank erosion. It can also provide a glimpse into what winter will look like in the not-so-distant future if steps are not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Environment Canada's senior climatologist David Phillips says the ending winter is a lost season. Canada easily broke high temperature records this winter, Mr. Phillips cited data prior to 1948.
During the three-month period from December to February, when the weather is called winter, Canada was 5.2 degrees Celsius warmer than average and 1.1 degrees warmer than average. The previous record was established in 2009-2010.
Extreme winter weather prevails across Canada, from deep freezes in January on the prairies to massive snowfalls on the coast in February. But the warmer-than-normal and unusual weather was widely felt across Canada.
Some may have lauded lower heating bills or seasonally milder days, but David Phillips says Canada's winter lifestyle has seen record temperatures rise. Winter festivals were canceled, ski resorts were closed, and flora and fauna appeared prematurely. Remote First Nations in Ontario and Manitoba that rely on snow roads have declared a state of emergency due to poor conditions.
Outdoor skiing, often seen as a common image of winter life in Canada, has also been affected. Ottawa's iconic Rideau Canal skating rink was open for a few days this winter after a season-long closure the year before.
Experts say the El Niño weather phenomenon and human-caused climate change are factors responsible for this winter's record heat. Other relevant factors include global ocean temperatures and residual warming from early 2023.
El Nino, a natural phenomenon that usually occurs every two to seven years, was strong this year, but not overwhelming. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization said its peak was lower than two other El Niño winters in 1997 and 2015.
“El Niño contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are undoubtedly the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Salo said in an update earlier this month, referring to a series of monthly records for global temperatures. .
According to David Phillips, climate change is expected to increase winter temperatures in Canada more than any other season. According to him, if the world continues to emit greenhouse gases at normal levels until 2050, his home community of Barrie in central Ontario could regularly experience such warm winters by 2065.
On the other hand, if there is less snow on the ground during the spring melt, less water is available to irrigate farmland and fill reservoirs. Snowmelt also helps reduce wildfire risk.
According to the latest update from Environment Canada, almost all of western Canada, northern Ontario and much of northern Quebec were in the grip of drought at the end of February. Parts of southern Alberta and northern British Columbia recorded conditions typically seen once every 50 years.
“Drought season, wildfire season — all of these things come, but sometimes the seeds are sown in the winter,” climatologist Phillips recalls.
Great Lakes ice cover, which helps protect coastlines from erosion during winter storms, hit historic lows in February. Erosion concerns extend to coastal areas around the Gulf of St. Lawrence, including Prince Edward Island.
For his part, Damon Matthews, a climatologist at Concordia University in Canada, points out that “we, as a country, need to stop arguing about whether this is a problem or a priority.” In his opinion, Canada “has not stepped up efforts.”
He notes that the decline of outdoor skating is one consequence, but much worse things will happen if the fight against climate change does not progress.
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