Nordstrom said downtown has “changed dramatically over the past several years, affecting customer traffic to our stores and our ability to operate successfully,” without specifically mentioning public safety concerns in the staff memo.
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, which owns the Westfield mall where Nordstrom closes, was more blunt, with a city spokesperson blaming the city for “unsafe conditions” and a “lack of enforcement against rampant criminal activity.”
These claims are supported by crime data that shows retail theft has risen in San Francisco in the past few years. But some measures of criminal activity such as 911 calls at Market and Fifth street are lower than pre-pandemic levels, indicating less traffic and less shopper activity, which may in turn fuel increased risk perception.
Statewide data shows that San Francisco has a higher rate of shoplifting reports than the rest of California and neighboring Bay Area counties.
According to the FBI’s consolidated crime reporting data, the city saw 304 reports of theft per 100,000 residents in 2021, up 14.7% from 2019’s 265 reports per 100,000 residents, and nearly double the 162 reports of 2020 per 100,000 residents.
In contrast, California’s rate in 2021, the most recent data available, was 163 reports per 100,000 residents, a rate still below the 2019 level of 228 reports per 100,000 residents, and flat compared to 2020.
Reports of theft declined across the state in 2020 as many retailers and malls closed for in-person shopping during the pandemic health orders.
Pedestrians walk down Market Street in San Francisco past a Nordstrom stand that has announced it will close.
Lea Suzuki/The Associated PressAcross the bay, Alameda County saw shoplifting reports rise to 222 per 100,000 residents in 2021 from 162 in 2020, but it remains below the 2021 level of 228. To the south, Santa Clara County had 115 reports per 100,000 residents, Compared to 2020 and below the 2019 average of 155.
“San Francisco really stands out compared to the rest of the state,” said Magnus Lofstrom, director of criminal justice policy and senior fellow at the California Public Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, who provided the data.
While property crime is relatively high in San Francisco, violent crime rates are relatively low compared to other major American cities, according to data from local police districts.
Annual homicides have increased in San Francisco during the pandemic, Lofstrom said, but that matches an upward trend across the state and nationally.
Theft data comes with warnings.
San Francisco is a tourism hub and — even more so before the pandemic — a destination for office travelers who live outside the city, adding to its daytime population. Lofstrom said that means there are more potential victims and perpetrators who are not accounted for in the city’s total population, which raises the crime rate compared to cities that don’t see as many visitors.
San Francisco police also said that shoplifting incidents are underreported. “It’s incomplete data. Many incidents are not reported to law enforcement,” Lofstrom said.
It is not clear how public safety influenced Nordstrom’s decision to close. Another major retailer, Whole Foods, cited safety concerns when it temporarily closed its largest San Francisco store, located at Eighth and Market Streets, last month.
Saks of Fifth on Market Street in San Francisco, among a handful of businesses that have announced they will be closing.
Gabriel Lowry/The ChronicleAnother measure of crime is the number of 911 calls at a specific city intersection.
On Fifth and Market Streets — next to Nordstrom, Nordstrom Rack, and Saks of 5 — annual calls to 911 dropped from 3951 in 2019 to 1163 in 2020 and continued to fall with 913 in 2021 and 897 in 2022. That doesn’t necessarily mean the area is safer, but it does. Possibly they are related to lower volume of foot traffic following pandemic sanitary restrictions, reduced number of tourists and telecommuting.
Reports of shoplifting, which includes shoplifting, have increased in the Tenderloin Police Station area, which includes the Westfield Mall, but are still below pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
In the first four months of 2023, these reports increased by 22% to 567 incidents from 465 incidents in the same four months in 2022. In all of 2022, reports rose to 1,800 incidents, up 43% from 1,251 incidents in 2021 and 1,088 An incident in 2020. But 2019 saw more reports: 2,535.
When it comes to reducing retail crime, Lofstrom said, there is no clear solution. Part of the challenge is the lack of clear data on what percentage of theft is committed by organized criminals or those looking to profit from goods, as opposed to destitute people who steal food or other necessities as a means of survival.
“It’s hard to say exactly what to do about it,” he said. “Research strongly suggests more cops deter theft.”
In March, the Board of Supervisors approved $25 million to fund additional police work. Superintendent Matt Dorsey, who represents South of Market and the Westfield Mall area, is working on a potential ballot that would increase the number of police personnel.
“There was a challenge of recruiting and keeping them,” Lofstrom said of policing. “It’s something we see all over California and something that applies to San Francisco as well.”
On Wednesday, merchants around nearby Union Square sought to highlight signs of economic progress in the area, which included crowded March tulip freebies, more tourists and some new store openings.
“We’re more committed than ever to the bricks-and-mortar of the region,” Lauren Ellis, director and co-owner of CK Contemporary, an art gallery celebrating its 10th anniversary, said in a statement. “We are excited about the momentum that has been built in the neighborhood as we emerge from the difficult past few years.”
In the middle of the day on a rainy Wednesday, it was quiet outside at the Market Street entrance to the Westfield Shopping Centre. A security guard stood inside the door, looking outside.
“I was surprised how few people were. I thought it would be busier,” said Colin Burns, a visitor from Wellington, New Zealand, who was leaving the mall.
Arum Kathuria of San Francisco wasn’t surprised to learn Nordstrom would close and expected other retailers to follow. He guessed that “shoplifting and shop safety is the biggest reason behind this.” “I’ve seen a lot of shoplifting.”
Natasha Burr, from San Francisco, came downtown to take a look after hearing Nordstrom was closing. But she won’t miss it.
“I think malls are a terrible idea,” she said, on her way in. “I am interested in them taking the mall and converting it into mixed-use housing.”
Mayor of London Pride and Chairman of the Board of Supervisors Aaron Peskin has proposed making it easier to open offices, leisure and other uses in vacant retail space. The Planning Commission is scheduled to vote on the measure on Thursday.
The couple who didn’t seem bothered by reports of crimes in the mall or on the streets were Maria Magana and Gabriel Tilly, who had come from Richmond.
“I feel like it’s worse in Richmond than it is here,” Magana said. “Public safety is a big issue, but it’s not a big deal for us. We’re used to it,” said Tilley.
Reach Roland Li: [email protected]; Twitter: @rolandlisf, Reach Sam Whiting: [email protected]
