Cleveland – There is an expiration date. Barring a few unexpected developments, Shane Pepper will not be residing in Cleveland after the 2024 season. That’s when he’s headed to free agency.
This is not an expiration date.
The Guardians don’t usually drive their stars down the red carpet at the Winter Meetings. Players usually leave Cleveland on club terms. Before long, Bieber will be wearing another team’s uniform. Maybe later this summer. Maybe this is out of season.
With a rookie reinventing himself and a squad trying to force their way through what has, up to this point, been a disappointing season, the Guardians should have plenty of motivation over the next eight weeks to explore what the Bieber trade might look like at least, no matter what. Their standing is in the American League Central.
It’s a complicated situation.
The two sides discussed a long-term agreement last spring, but the talks have not amounted to much. Bieber is earning the $10 million-plus mark this season, and he’ll be eligible for an even more lucrative payday next season.
Cleveland has a pattern of dealing with novice pitchers in similar circumstances.
• July 2019: Trevor Bauer was traded with the team remaining in control for over a year
• December 2019: Corey Kluber traded with one year of team control remaining (plus a club option ultimately turned down by Rangers)
• August 2020: Mike Clevinger was traded with over two years left of the team’s dominance
Guardians’ basic needs are stark. They rank at or near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Any young hitter with the ability to collect extra base hits would be welcome. The two logical ways to get such a player: Potential Pack or Trade Pepper. It may be the duty of the guardians to do both.
As usual, The Guardians boast plenty of depth to begin with, with rookies Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee confirming themselves as both reliable and big-role options. Triston McKenzie and Aaron Seval returned from the injured list last weekend. Gavin Williams, a consensus Top 50 candidate, has had a good run of seven starts for Triple-A Columbus.
This does not mean that guardians do not do this Need Bieber, who allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday against the Red Sox. Even without the arsenal of devastating pitches that helped him a unanimous AL Cy Young Award selection in 2020, he’s mostly proven effective, with a 3.57 ERA in 2023 and a 2.88 ERA across 200 innings pitched in 2022. Plus, the Guardians will need to keep an eye on his workloads. Allen, Pepe and Williams this season.
But what exactly is Bieber at this point? Is it an ace? Average man? Is he more valuable to the Guardians or to another team?
Above all, what do you do other teams think it is? Does the acquired team aim to extend it?
Pepper has a much smaller margin of error than he did when he used a 94 mph fastball and when he leaned hard on a deadlift curveball. This year, though, his strike rate has decreased and he has succumbed to more strikes and rough contact than ever before. He scored four or more hits in just two of his 13 starts. His breeze rate has dropped sharply this season.
The key to all of this is the market. Any other shooters that will be available this summer, and how do other teams view Bieber now and in the future?
Finding the right match can be challenging. A quick scan of the rhythm book in the athlete He revealed that the Angels (his hometown team), Orioles, Rangers, Cardinals, Astros, Padres, Mets and Dodgers could all show varying degrees of interest. Some of these teams have rotation needs. Some of these teams have an excess of young players. some have both.
If the Guardians move Bieber this summer, it will be for a playoff contender. But would a young hitter (or two) who’s made it to the majors be joined by a competitor or come close to such a promotion? In previous trades, the Guardians have had both immediate and future help. For Clevinger, for example, they’ve got three big players (Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, and Austin Hedges) and three prospects (Gabriel Arias, Owen Miller, and Joey Cantelo).
One scout was skeptical of Pepper’s ability to land the guard as much as the Reds got him with Luis Castillo last summer, though they noted that the Cleveland front office rarely budges from the asking price. The Guardians may be seeking a worthy return by going No. 1 to No. 2, but other teams (aside from the A’s) have access to FanGraphs and the Baseball Savant, where they can discover Bieber’s core metrics. Castillo, like Pepper, had a year and a change remaining the team’s control. The Reds landed three of Seattle’s top five prospects, per an MLB pipeline, though the Mariners turned around two months later and signed Castillo to a five-year deal worth more than $100 million.
The Guardians employ a group of middle-class leads who have either broken into big corporations or are ready to do so at a moment’s notice. Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brian Rocchio are all considered to be among the top 100 players in the game at one point. Potential players Ángel Martínez and Jose Tena also occupy spots on the club’s 40-man squad.
This leaves the field as a clear target area. Jorge Valera, the Guardians’ second man to enter this season according to Athletic Keith Low, working his way back from a wrist injury. He could debut in the majors before the end of the summer.
Based solely on the team’s control, the Guardians can probably get more for Bieber at the trade deadline than if they hold on to him until the end of the season. It remains to be seen if they can determine a reasonable fit. The trade deadline is August 1. By then, we’ll have a better understanding of the Guardians’ state of contention and Bieber’s better reputation in the rotation.
The Guardian hasn’t exactly been a strong leader with Bieber on board this season. Trade will be exploring more about his future with the franchise than the team he makes in 2023, especially with the division’s poor state. It is not about buying or selling; For Guardians, it’s always about allocating resources.
Bieber probably won’t be a part of Cleveland’s next great tournament anyway. Guardians desperately need offensive upgrades. To strengthen their roster in the short and long term, they need to address their lineup, and Pepper Droop could be an effective way to do that. The expiration date is approaching.
Go deeper
Shane Bieber transformation: The Guardians’ ace reinvents himself as a pitcher
(Top photo: Su Ugroki/The Associated Press)
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