Will storms return in a big way to Quebec in February?

Liquid wins

Overall, February will have less snow this year. This does not mean there will be no snow, but the amount will be less than normal. Also, let's remember that the atmospheric environment is expected to change in four weeks. As the first part will be marked by mild weather, systems from the South America may bring rain to many areas.

“The month will unfold in three phases,” estimates meteorologist Régène Ouimet. The first part will be marked by hot disturbances. Systems rise from the southern United States and move west of Quebec across the Great Lakes. Such paths favor gentle air upwelling and precipitation is more liquid. Broadsides are limited in such situations.

Snow's Revenge

Starting in the second week of February, Quebec may start a more active lineup. Well-organized storms will move towards La Belle province thanks to a favorable jet stream path. During this period of about ten days, the cold is well entrenched, making it a suitable environment for snow.

“Then the atmosphere starts to move and it gets cold,” explains Réjean Ouimet. As we saw earlier in January, we risk finding ourselves in a collision of air masses with storms that can follow each other. Predominance of cold favors precipitation in the form of snow.

South current

As the polar vortex begins a steep descent, the path of the jet stream can branch south of the boundary. In such a situation, disturbances tend to follow the path traced by strong winds. This means Quebec can be spared from storms. However, a system that deviates slightly to the north is at risk of inundation in Belle County.

Finally, the cold then pushes back the lows south of Quebec. Most of the snow will stay away from Quebec. So around the edges there will be less precipitation, but there will be snow towards the end of the month. A possible subtlety concerns the eastern regions. Coastal ditches end there at the end of the track. Eastern Quebec saw above-normal snowfall totals this month. Elsewhere, late February should see less snowmelt than usual.